Introduction
The 44% of electricity generation from renewable sources in 2025 is not a target, but a physical threshold reached only thanks to a massive increase in installed capacity in areas with a high density of production. This figure represents the balance between productive flow and existing transmission network, exceeding the critical threshold for which the system can no longer be managed as a simple technological substitution. Operationally, this means that each subsequent increase requires structural intervention on the distribution network, rather than on the generator’s efficiency.
The German energy transition is not measured in isolated percentages, but in the physical capacity of the grid to absorb and direct the flow. The increase in renewable energy has created pressure on existing infrastructure, particularly in the north of the country where most offshore and onshore turbines are located. In fact, this capacity can no longer be managed without a direct intervention on the distribution logic and the physical architecture of the network.
The expansion of renewable sources has led to a situation of congestion in the German transmission system. In 2026, the government proposed limiting incentives for new projects in areas with congested networks, highlighting that the infrastructure is no longer just a channel but a critical node of the transition. The technical threshold reached in 2025 implies that each further increase requires a structural modification of the system, not just expansion.
The installed capacity in areas with high production has exceeded the transmission capacity. According to the document “Germany: Grid Package (Draft)”, northern areas can generate up to 150 MW from offshore wind, but only a fraction is actually transmitted inland. This discrepancy implies that excess energy must be interrupted or dispersed, a phenomenon known as curtailment, with direct operational losses. In fact, the system is no longer designed to manage intermittent flows at the national level.
The gap between production and transmission has led to the adoption of new policies that reduce incentives for small solar plants in congested areas. This change is not only economic, but structural: it implies a reconfiguration of the energy development model towards a centralized and planned system, with direct consequences on capital flows and investment decisions.
The expansion of renewable capacity has a direct physical cost in terms of critical minerals. 37.7% of electric vehicles sold in the second quarter of 2026 require a significant amount of lithium, cobalt, and nickel for batteries. This growing demand forces economic powers to realign strategic alliances along African and Latin American mining corridors.
The case of BYD’s production in Brazil, which has reached 100,000 vehicles produced in the country, shows how decentralization of the physical supply chain has already changed geopolitical dynamics. Local production capacity is linked to access to raw materials and the presence of infrastructure for primary mineral processing. In this context, countries that control critical resources or have advanced refining capabilities gain strategic logistical control.
The advantage is no longer just in the final market for electric vehicles, but in the ability to ensure a continuous flow of materials needed for production. Countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (for cobalt) or Chile (for lithium) become critical nodes of the global energy transition, while those that do not have resources or refining capabilities lose influence.
The narrative says that Germany has surpassed fossil fuels; the data shows that this is possible only thanks to an already overloaded transmission network. The gap manifests itself in the fact that each further increase requires a structural intervention on the network, not on the efficiency of the generators.
The Impact KPI is a reduction of 18% in curtailment capacity for renewable projects in congested areas by 2030. This indicator measures the effectiveness of the infrastructure intervention and represents a significant operational change compared to the status quo, where up to 25% of renewable production was dispersed due to lack of transmission capacity.
Photo by Michelangelo Azzariti on Unsplash
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