Traffic Collapse in Hormuz: A Logistical Bottleneck
The Strait of Hormuz, a 50 km passage between Iran and Saudi Arabia, is a key element of global oil flow. Between 2024 and 2026, maritime traffic in this route has decreased by 90-95% compared to pre-conflict levels, according to Reuters analyses based on satellite and tracking data. This reduction is not due to weather conditions or a decline in global demand, but to a strategic realignment of energy routes. The data, confirmed by Ron Bousso, an energy analyst at Reuters, indicates a structural change in the oil transportation system. The decline is not seasonal: since June 2024, the average cargo load in the US has decreased from 607 miles to just over 500 miles, a 21% decrease, with 11% recorded in the last year. This indicates a real contraction in the operational capacity of transport networks, not just a delay.
The operating mechanism is clear: with the Strait of Hormuz made unstable, energy carriers are forced to divert to longer routes, such as the one around Africa, increasing transit times and transportation costs. The effect is a compression of the logistical flow, with a resulting increase in tension on storage systems and refueling capacity. The decrease in the average cargo load in the US is not an isolated phenomenon, but a direct reflection of the reduced transit capacity in a critical node. This realignment is not temporary: alternative routes require a more extensive and less efficient logistical support network, with a direct impact on the dynamics of energy prices.
Architecture of the Node: Who Controls the Route?
The Strait of Hormuz is managed by a complex maritime control system, with a navigation infrastructure, satellite monitoring, and naval security. Ships transiting the strait must follow a predetermined route, with constant surveillance by Iranian authorities and other regional forces. Deviation to alternative routes, such as around the Cape of Good Hope, requires a more extensive support infrastructure: ports of call, loading terminals, maintenance and refueling services. This network is less integrated and more susceptible to delays, with repair times that can reach 7-10 days for a transport unit in the event of a breakdown.
Ships operating on these alternative routes are often larger, with a carrying capacity of up to 300,000 tons, but require specialized terminals and a more complex logistical organization. The storage infrastructure in Europe and Asia has been designed to handle regular flows from Hormuz, not to handle intermittent flows from alternative routes. This creates a misalignment between production capacity and actual demand, resulting in oil accumulation in storage and pressure on prices.
Who Pays and Who Benefits: The Distribution of Cost
The additional transportation costs resulting from the diversion were primarily absorbed by oil companies and end consumers. Companies operating on alternative routes experienced a 15-20% increase in transportation costs, with a direct impact on profitability. This led to an increase in retail prices, with a cascading effect on global markets. Ports of call along the alternative routes, such as Durban and Mombasa, saw a 30% increase in traffic, with an increase in revenue for terminals and port fees.
At the same time, energy companies operating in the United States received $700 million in funding from the Trump administration, with $425 million distributed to 13 coal-fired power plants in various states. This funding is not linked to the reduction in traffic in Hormuz, but to a strategy of supporting the traditional energy sector. The operating mechanism is clear: while maritime routes are being reduced, the US government is increasing domestic production capacity, reducing dependence on international routes. This creates a new allocation of resources, with an increase in domestic production capacity and a reduction in dependence on the global market.
Closure: Monitoring the System
The traffic collapse in Hormuz is not an isolated event, but a symptom of a strategic repositioning of energy routes that is creating a new logistical bottleneck. The system is undergoing structural compression, with increased transportation costs and reduced storage capacity. The key data point is the 90-95% drop in traffic in Hormuz, which has led to a 15-20% increase in transportation costs and a 30% increase in traffic in alternative port locations.
Impact KPI: +15-20% increase in transportation costs for ships on alternative routes.
To monitor the system in the coming months, it is crucial to observe traffic in the port locations along the alternative routes, such as Durban and Mombasa, and the storage levels in European and Asian terminals. An increase in traffic in port locations indicates further compression of the system, while an increase in storage levels indicates a reduction in actual demand. These indicators will provide a direct measure of the pressure on the logistical system and the ability of global energy networks to adapt.
Photo by Hiki Liu on Unsplash
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