Introduction
The Capacity Discrepancy and the Reconfiguration of Logistics
According to Sea-Intelligence, the global fleet is experiencing a capacity shortage estimated at 1.8 million TEU. This discrepancy is not a temporary cycle but indicates a structural realignment between supply and demand in the maritime transport sector. The data shows that ship utilization rates have fallen to the point where traditional fares are unsustainable, despite the continued profitability of carriers. This phenomenon occurs in a context of stable demand but with a capacity exceeding what is necessary to meet actual flows.
The physical problem lies in the overlap between main routes and the inefficient distribution of ships on non-optimal paths. Carriers are reducing the number of direct sailings, replacing them with more complex routes that pass through intermodal hubs to control operating costs. This restructuring is motivated by the desire to maximize capacity utilization per ship unit, even at the expense of transit times.
Alternative Routes and Bypass Costs
Alternative routes are becoming a central element in logistics planning. Maersk has introduced an additional charge for shipments from Turkey to Somalia, set at $200 per 20ft container and $300 for 40ft and 45ft containers. This surcharge is not a fixed cost but depends on the price calculation date (PCD), indicating a dynamic strategy based on seasonal demand and market conditions.
In the air freight sector, Asian forwarders have predicted an increase in demand in the second half of 2026, with 71% of respondents expecting an increase. This expectation is fueled by geopolitical factors and the need to reconfigure flows to avoid bottlenecks in main corridors. Transit times have increased on average by 15% compared to 2023, with 58.8% of companies reporting monthly delays and 15.7% weekly.
Intermodal Hubs as New Logistics Nodes
The increasing reliance on intermodal corridors is reflected in the growth of strategic hubs in alternative areas, such as Mexico for North American flows or the United Arab Emirates for those in the Middle East. Boluda has inaugurated its European headquarters in Rotterdam, positioning it as a central node for operations in Northern Europe, a move that reflects the growing importance of cross-border routes and physical exchange points.
The change is not only about the routes but also about the structure of logistics itself. Svitzer has activated the first tugboat in London powered by 100% HVO 100, a solution that reduces emissions and fits into a broader framework of energy transition in ports. This shift is not only environmental but strategic: it allows carriers to access markets with restrictive regulations on the use of traditional fuels, opening up new opportunities for commercial traffic.
Impact on Operating Margin and Working Capital
The net effect on the P&L is an increase in the average logistics cost of +18% compared to 2023, with a direct impact on the operating margin. The difference between the transportation cost via direct route and via bypass results in a reduction in the operating spread for companies that are unable to reconfigure flows promptly.
Working capital has been immobilized by an average of +42 days at customs checkpoints, resulting in increased liquidity tied up while awaiting authorizations. This delay translates into a reduction in the turnover of goods and an increase in the opportunity cost for companies operating in short-cycle markets. The KPI impact is quantifiable: the average transit cost from Shanghai to Los Angeles via Mexico is now $120 higher than the direct route, with an additional 7 days.