On February 2, 2026, a coordinated attack on critical Saudi infrastructure, attributed to Chinese-manufactured autonomous drones, disrupted 60% of the kingdom’s oil production. The event, quickly labeled as a hybrid war act, triggered an increase in crude prices and a new wave of speculation about the vulnerability of global infrastructures. However, this incident is not an anomaly but a manifestation of a consolidated trend: the growing asymmetry between the ability to inflict physical damage and the capacity to protect critical infrastructure.
The Mechanics of Power: Drones, Oil Pipelines, and Fault Lines
The Saudi attack exploited a fundamental vulnerability in the global oil network: the concentration of critical infrastructures in geographically limited areas and dependence on centralized control systems. The drones used, presumably advanced models of GH-003, were able to evade air defenses thanks to their low radar signature and swarm capabilities. The precision of the attacks allowed them to strike key nodes of production and storage facilities, causing significant and prolonged damage. The Saudi oil network, like many others worldwide, is a complex and interconnected system where a single point of failure can trigger a domino effect. The reliance on SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems makes these infrastructures particularly vulnerable to coordinated cyber-physical attacks. The ability to disrupt Saudi oil production does not lie in the destructive power of the drones, but in leveraging these systemic weaknesses. The cost of protection, in terms of security investments and maintenance, exceeds the risk absorption capacity for many operators.
Friction and Asymmetry: Who Bears the Cost?
The dominant rhetoric attributes the attack to an escalation of geopolitical tensions and the need to strengthen energy security. However, this narrative overlooks a crucial aspect: cost distribution. The increase in oil prices disproportionately affects developing countries, exacerbating economic and social inequalities. Oil companies, despite immediate losses, can transfer costs to consumers and benefit from higher long-term prices. Governments, forced to intervene to stabilize markets and protect their economies, incur further debt. The asymmetry lies in the ability of some actors to inflict damage at low cost and shift those costs onto others. The vulnerability of critical infrastructures is not just a security issue but also a matter of distributive justice. Protecting these infrastructures requires massive investments, often financed through cuts to public services and social assistance. Ultimately, the cost of security is paid by citizens.
Trial of Doctrine: The Dilemma of Dependence
The theory of dependency, formulated in the 1960s and 70s, analyzed the relationships between developed countries and developing ones, highlighting how global economic structures perpetuated inequality and subjugation. The Saudi attack confirms the validity of this theory by demonstrating how dependence on fossil fuels and critical infrastructures makes countries vulnerable to external shocks and geopolitical manipulations. Transitioning to renewable energy sources, while necessary, does not eliminate vulnerability but shifts it to new critical areas, such as rare material supply chains and cybersecurity. Dependency is ultimately a structural condition that permeates the entire global system.
Tactical Horizon: Monitoring Flows
In the next six months, it will be crucial to monitor the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the intensifying tensions between the United States and China. The increase in autonomous drone production and the proliferation of advanced technologies represent an increasing threat to critical infrastructures worldwide. It will be essential to analyze the financial and technological flows that fuel this proliferation and identify vulnerabilities in supply chains. The rise in oil prices and energy market instability could trigger social and political unrest in various countries, creating a favorable environment for extremism and terrorism.
The Irreversible Threshold
The Saudi attack represents a turning point. The vulnerability of critical infrastructures has become an undeniable reality, and the ability to inflict significant damage at low cost is within reach of an increasing number of actors. The question is no longer whether there will be more attacks but when and with what consequences. The real challenge lies in overcoming the logic of dependency and building a more resilient and sustainable global system. What level of damage can be tolerated to maintain the status quo?
Photo by Alyssa Nguyen on Unsplash
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