The Physical Bottleneck: Blank Sailings as a Market Tool
Spot freight rates for the China-to-U.S. East Coast route reached $9,400 per TEU in August 2026, a 400% increase compared to pre-crisis levels. This surge is not accompanied by an increase in demand: shipment volumes from China to the United States are down 1%, according to FreightWaves SONAR data. This phenomenon indicates a controlled market, not one driven by reactive forces.
The physical bottleneck that makes this dynamic possible is the blank sailing — the deliberate cancellation of a ship from a scheduled route. This practice, now systematic among global carriers, reduces the available supply without altering the total fleet capacity. In 2026, the main operators (MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO) together control over 50% of the global capacity in TEU, according to GoFreight.
The market concentration has made strategic control possible. When carriers decide not to dispatch a ship — even if available — they artificially create a shortage of space. This action is documented by multiple sources: ExFreight and the Journal of Commerce indicate that operators use blank sailings to avoid oversupply, keeping prices under pressure.
Logistics Reconfiguration: Alternative Routes and Alternative Costs
Carriers are not simply canceling routes. They have reprogrammed intercontinental flows to maximize control over major transit routes. The reconfiguration is evident in the data: while the direct China-East United States route shows increasing freight rates, other routes—such as those via Panama or through Northern Europe—show reduced margins but longer transit times.
A concrete example: a container that reaches the port of Los Angeles from Shanghai in 21 days, with freight rates at $9,400/TEU, can be rerouted via Rotterdam (with delivery in North America) for approximately $7,800/TEU, but requires an additional 6-8 days and additional costs for road transport between Europe and the United States.
Other options include using the port of Tauranga in New Zealand as a transshipment hub. The Stella Passage project, approved by the rapid government panel of New Zealand, includes an extension of the wharf from 385 meters and increased container capacity. This infrastructure enables the reconfiguration of flows towards the South Pacific and Australia.
The Strategic Lever: Controlling the Flow as a Source of Margin
The main effect of this strategy is to transform the market from competitive to oligopolistic. Carriers no longer compete on volume, but on control over the flow. Blank sailings become a financial mechanism: reducing supply increases the value of each available TEU.
The operating margin of carriers has remained high thanks to this practice. According to data from FreightWaves, BAF (Bunker Adjustment Factor) rates for the Australia-South Pacific route were set at $555/TEU for 20-foot containers and $1,100 for 40-foot containers—a significant increase compared to the previous period, not justified by changes in fuel prices.
The power of decision is concentrated in the main operators. Physical capacity (TEUs) and the logistics network have been reconfigured to favor a centralized management of flows, reducing the risk of overproduction and keeping prices within a protected range.
Impact on Margin and Working Capital: The Hidden Cost of Stability
The net effect for importers is a reduction in gross margin. A container that cost $2,300 in freight in 2024 now costs $9,400, with an increase of over 300%. This impact directly affects COGS and working capital.
Working capital increases because containers remain stuck in ports or in transit for longer periods. An average delay of 5 additional days in the logistics cycle results in a 12% annual increase in the cost of immobilized capital per TEU, according to internal estimates from B2B operators.
The situation contrasts with public statements from carriers. Maersk announced in its 2026 strategic update that the fleet could exceed a capacity of 4.4 million TEUs—a sign of future growth. However, this does not translate into increased supply immediately: new ships are integrated into the existing system and subject to blank sailing policies.
Alert for the Decision Maker
CFOs and Supply Chain Directors must review their negotiation strategies. Long-term contracts no longer guarantee stability: supply is controlled, not available.
Monitor the rate of blank sailings for each major route — data available through FreightWaves SONAR and JOC. If it exceeds 15% in a consecutive month, an artificial market control condition occurs.
Consider using alternative hubs such as Tauranga or Rotterdam to reduce dependence on direct China-East USA routes. The additional cost is only justifiable if the delay does not exceed 7 days and the risk of port congestion remains below threshold.
Photo by Donovan Reeves on Unsplash
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