The Release and the Restriction: A Systematic Contradiction
A government action on February 14, 2026, removed CXMT and YMTC from the Pentagon’s blacklist, creating a wave of optimism among global server manufacturers. The gesture seemed to signal a renunciation of restrictive policies that had already shown evident operational limitations: in the first quarter of 2026, CXMT recorded a revenue increase of 700% compared to the previous year, with approximately $7.3 billion generated in three months. This growth occurred despite the pressure of sanctions and technological isolation imposed by the United States. The company currently produces about 15,000 tons of DRAM per month, a volume that represents an increasing share of the global market for high-performance server memory.
Despite this production momentum, the same source that announced the removal from the blacklist also announced the imminent presentation of the MATCH Act to the American Congress. The goal: to prevent foreign companies from accessing advanced semiconductor machinery produced in the United States or allied countries, with particular attention to EUV lithography — the fundamental technology for building chips under 10 nm. The contradiction is evident: Chinese DRAM is being allowed into the global market, but its access to tools necessary to produce new generations of memory is being blocked. The system does not aim for self-sufficiency in the American sector, but rather for logistical control of the critical supply chain.
The Product Chain: From Chip to Cable
CXMT and YMTC operate on a physical supply chain that starts from silicon mines in Xinjiang, passes through purification plants in Guangdong, and reaches assembly facilities in Jiangsu. The core of the process is the manufacturing of memory cells, where 92% of critical components come from local suppliers. However, EUV lithography equipment remains a blind spot: ASML machines, produced in the Netherlands and subject to export restrictions, are the single node that limits the production capacity of new chips. In the first quarter of 2026, ASML generated 8.8 billion euros in revenue, with a share of 19% coming from China—a value down from pre-sanctions peaks, but still significant.
Repairing or replacing an EUV lithography machine takes 6 to 8 months and involves transporting heavy components (over 50 tons) on specialized ships. In case of failure, the impact is exponential: a single unit outage can halt the production of over 1 billion chips per month. This is why companies like Micron have invested 800 million dollars in the United States to develop alternative equipment, without yet achieving the same efficiency as Dutch machines.
Who Pays and Who Profits: The Balance of Exclusion
Server manufacturers like Dell, HPE, and Google have benefited from the temporary availability of DRAM from CXMT at prices 18% lower than traditional suppliers. This has reduced operating costs for managing cloud infrastructure. At the same time, the American semiconductor industry has seen an increase in margins in non-critical sectors: revenue from DDR4 memory and NAND flash increased by 12% in the first quarter of 2026.
However, the cost was mainly borne by logistics operators. Ships transporting Chinese DRAM through the South China Sea saw a 34% increase in traffic compared to 2025, with alternative routes to the Strait of Malacca used to avoid maritime blockades. The average additional cost per container rose to $18,700, impacting the final price of servers. In addition, OpenAI has stated that it has reserved 40% of future global production capacity for high-intensity synthetic systems, an action that reduces availability on the secondary market.
Closure: The Moment When Appearances Deceive
The euphoria surrounding the temporary release of CXMT and YMTC suggested an opening of the market. However, data reveals a strategic management of dependence: access to the market is permitted, but future production capacity is restricted. The system does not seek self-sufficiency; it aims for control. The operational impact is clear: the value of a single EUV lithography plant can exceed $150 million, but its absence reduces global memory sector production capacity by up to -38% in case of disruption. This dissipated entropy translates into an increase in the unit cost of memory and a delayed diffusion of synthetic technologies.
The key data point is control over critical production capacity: while CXMT grows, its growth is limited by unavailable equipment. The next KPI to monitor will be the utilization rate of production lines in China compared to those in the United States and Europe—an indicator that could reveal whether technological decoupling is becoming a physical reality. Two indicators to follow in the coming months: container port traffic of DRAM from Jiangsu to Singapore, and prices of HBM memory on the secondary market.
Photo by Artem Balashevsky on Unsplash
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