3% Annually Is Not Enough
A 3% annual reduction in emissions in 2024 is not just a statistic, but an indicator of a system in unstable equilibrium. The flow of greenhouse gases emitted by the European Union, measured in 2.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent not covered by the ETS system, exceeds the natural absorption capacity of the territory. This surplus is not a calculation error, but a structural result of the current energy model. Renewable energy covers 47.3% of the electricity mix, a value that, although high, is not sufficient to neutralize the residual entropy generated by the non-electrified sectors. This figure is not a milestone, but a technical threshold: each additional 1% of renewables requires a structural change in the grid, not just an increase in capacity.
The 3% reduction in 2024 was mainly achieved through the replacement of coal with natural gas and the expansion of wind power generation in Germany and Denmark. However, this change has not altered the overall thermodynamic balance. Natural gas, although less carbon-intensive than coal, maintains a CO2/energy ratio of more than 0.18 kg/MJ, a value that does not approach the 0.10 kg/MJ limit required for a sustainable long-term system. The system is not reducing entropy; it is only shifting it to unmonitored sectors, such as maritime transport and heavy industry.
The Sustainability Threshold is Physical
The target of a 55% reduction by 2030 requires an average annual reduction of 4.3%. The 3% recorded in 2024 is below the minimum threshold necessary to maintain a linear path. This gap of 1.3 percentage points represents a deficit of 85 million tons of CO2 equivalent per year, a value that corresponds to approximately 12% of the total EU emissions in 2024. The system is not behind schedule; it is in a transition phase in which the energy cost of conversion exceeds the immediate benefit.
The 47.3% of renewables in the electricity mix is a measure of coverage, not of efficiency. The remaining 52.7% is still made up of fossil and nuclear sources, with an average efficiency of 41% for coal-fired power plants and 38% for gas-fired power plants. This means that 59% of the primary energy is not converted into useful work, but dissipated as heat. The reduction in emissions is therefore not a matter of policy, but of thermodynamics. The system cannot continue to operate with an efficiency of less than 50% and maintain a positive energy balance.
The 40% overall reduction since 1990 is a historical figure, not a future goal. The turning point has not been reached: the system is still in a transition phase, with a physical structure that is unable to absorb the entropy generated. The absence of a clear technical threshold has led to a narrative of progress that does not correspond to the physical reality of the energy system. The 3% annually is not a milestone; it is an indicator of a system that is reaching the limits of its storage capacity.
The Leverage of Maritime Transport
The ETS system extended to maritime transport, in force since 2024, represents the first concrete physical lever for reducing the emission deficit. The sector, responsible for approximately 2.5% of global emissions, has a CO2/energy ratio of more than 0.21 kg/MJ, a value that exceeds the sustainability limit by more than 15%. The introduction of the ETS system imposes a cost of 90 €/ton of CO2 equivalent, a value that, if applied to all vessels, would generate an increase of 12% in operating costs. This cost is not an obstacle, but an incentive for the restructuring of the energy flow.
The case of the port of Rotterdam shows that the conversion of a terminal to green hydrogen can reduce emissions by 1.2 million tons of CO2 equivalent per year. This change requires an investment of 2.1 billion euros, but produces an energy saving of 28% compared to diesel. The cost is not a limit; it is an indicator of a paradigm shift. Maritime transport cannot be treated as a marginal sector; it is a critical logistical node, and its conversion is a necessary condition for achieving the 55% target.
The Monitoring Threshold
The true indicator of success is not the percentage reduction, but the ratio between primary energy used and useful work produced. The reference value is 0.50 kg CO2/MJ. The current system is at 0.62 kg CO2/MJ, a value that indicates a system in saturation. Each efficiency increase of more than 15% in the electricity sector would reduce the deficit by 1.3 percentage points per year, bringing the system to a sustainable path.
Closure is not a projection, but a strategic asymmetry. The system is not behind schedule; it is in an unstable equilibrium. The narrative of progress is a tactical choice to maintain political stability, not a reflection of the physical reality. The 3% annually is not a milestone; it is a signal of a system that is reaching the limits of its storage capacity. The true indicator is not the reduction in emissions, but the ability to maintain a CO2/energy ratio below 0.50 kg/MJ. This value is not a goal; it is a physical threshold that must be respected to avoid a systemic collapse.
Photo by Pietro Maccoppi on Unsplash
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