The energy node of food production
A natural gas flow of 12 million tons per year, coming from the Persian Gulf, crosses the Strait of Hormuz to reach ammonia production plants in Asia and Europe. This transport, almost completely interrupted since February 2026, is not just a transit of hydrocarbons. It is the heart of a production chain that feeds 45% of the world’s crops. The route, 32 kilometers long, has been paralyzed by a naval blockade that has prevented the passage of more than 80 cargo ships in three months. The concentration of natural gas in the passage is so high that every 72-hour interruption results in a decrease of 300,000 tons per year in the production capacity of nitrogen fertilizers.
Ammonia production requires a temperature of 450°C and a pressure of 200 bar, conditions that can only be achieved with a continuous flow of natural gas. When the flow is interrupted, the plants must shut down the reactors and wait 72 hours to restart the process, at a cost of €2.3 million per shutdown. The blockade of the Strait has already caused 14 scheduled interruptions and 6 unplanned shutdowns, with a direct impact on 37 plants in India, Turkey and China. The crisis is not economic: it is physical. It is an engineering bottleneck that cannot be circumvented with contracts or markets.
The Production Mechanism and Its Vulnerability
The Haber-Bosch process, used for over a century to produce ammonia, requires 300 cubic meters of natural gas per ton of nitrogen. This ratio is fixed: it cannot be modified by algorithms, energy efficiency, or substitutes. The natural gas, which arrives in liquid form (LNG) from plants in Qatar and Iran, is transported in refrigerated ships at -162°C. The transport temperature is maintained by thermal insulation systems that require 1.2 megawatts of continuous power. When the gas does not arrive, the chain breaks at the molecular level.
The production plants are concentrated in 12 countries, with 60% of the capacity in Asia. The Pusan plant in South Korea has a capacity of 2.1 million tons per year, but can only operate at 70% if the gas flow is below 90% of the average. Reactor maintenance requires 45 days of downtime for each catalyst replacement cycle, and these are produced by only three plants worldwide: one in Germany, one in Japan, and one in Texas. The current delay in catalyst delivery, caused by the blockage of the Suez Canal, has already delayed two renovation programs. Production capacity is not a number: it is a physical condition that is maintained only if the input flow is continuous.
Who Pays and Who Profits in the Crisis?
Farms in Brazil, India, and the United States have already reduced the cultivated area by 18 million hectares due to fertilizer shortages. The impact is measurable: the price of wheat has increased by 14% in six weeks, and corn production in the United States has decreased by 12% compared to 2025. Companies that anticipated the disruption, such as Cargill and Bunge, have increased their margins by 2.8 percentage points, thanks to forward contracts signed before February 2026. The ports of Mumbai, Rotterdam, and Dalian have recorded a 33% decrease in the volume of fertilizer shipments, with an additional cost of 4.7 euros per ton for refrigerated container storage operations.
Shipping companies operating in the Persian Gulf have seen a 41% increase in revenue, but also a 28% increase in insurance costs. The Turkish shipping company Turgut, which operates 12 cargo ships, has increased the value of policies from 1.2 million to 2.1 million euros per ship. Production plants in China have activated emergency plans, but at an additional cost of 1.8 billion euros for the alternative transport of gas from Russia and Kazakhstan. The total cost of the crisis, according to industry estimates, is already more than 7.3 billion euros, and does not include the damage to crops.
Conclusion
The food crisis is not imminent; it is already underway. The link between fossil energy and food production is a physical constraint, not an option. The next three months will be crucial: if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume at least 60% of its historical capacity, the decline in global agricultural production will exceed 10%. The first indicator to monitor is the volume of natural gas transiting through the channel, with a critical limit of 5 million tons per month. The second is the price of natural gas in Europe, which must remain below €3.50/m³ to avoid further increases in production costs. Food security does not depend on policies, but on flows. And in this case, the flows are blocked.
Photo by Eric Prouzet on Unsplash
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