The Incident and Its Mechanism
On March 4, 2026, the USS Charlotte submarine sank the IRIS Dena, an Iranian warship, 20 miles off the coast of Sri Lanka. This event disrupted 30% of Iranian logistical traffic, directly impacting arms convoys. According to an analysis by Michael Schmitt on Just Security, the strike caused an immediate explosion and sinking within 2-3 minutes, despite a joint rescue operation involving Sri Lanka, India, and the USA.
“The attack violated Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter,” states Tom Dannenbaum, highlighting the illegality of the action.
The context is the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began on February 28 with Operation Epic Fury. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17 million barrels transit daily, pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel. The G7 decided not to release strategic reserves, considering the impact insufficient in an already strained market.
Engineering the Bottleneck
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical infrastructure: a 39-kilometer channel connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. Its disruption caused a 25% increase in insurance costs for merchant ships. Kharg Island, Iran’s main export terminal, handles 70% of crude oil exports. Its potential capture by the USA could reduce Iranian production by 50%, as noted by Keith Johnson in Foreign Policy.
The oil supply chain includes 120 tankers that transit daily. The lack of alternative logistical and port options has made the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz a strategic weapon. Robert A. Pape’s analysis highlights that the escalation favors Iran, which can sustain the conflict thanks to its position as a regional export monopoly.
Who Pays and Who Profits
Asian economies, particularly China and India, have increased their purchases of Iranian crude oil, taking advantage of the competitive price. Trafigura, one of the leading trading companies, recorded a 15% increase in revenue. The G7, on the other hand, saw a 10% decrease in crude oil exports, with negative impacts on the energy balances of Germany and France.
The G7’s decision not to release strategic reserves favored oil-exporting countries. Saudi Arabia increased supplies by +20%, while Kuwait seized the opportunity to strengthen relations with India.
“Trump’s war in the Middle East risks undermining domestic support,” says David E. Rosenberg, signaling a potential erosion of consensus for the conflict.
Conclusion
In my view, the conflict will not be decided by a sudden event, but by a slow accumulation of tensions. Two key indicators to monitor are: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the price of Iranian crude oil. The ability to keep the route open will determine the balance of the global market. Logistics, not rhetoric, will be the decisive factor.
Photo by othmane ferrah on Unsplash
Texts are autonomously processed by Artificial Intelligence models