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Installed capacity exceeds 300 GW
As of July 31, 2026, India has reached an installed renewable energy capacity of 300 gigawatts (GW), according to the Ministry of Renewable Energy. Of these, 164.59 GW come from solar, which represents 54.8% of the total, confirming the leadership of photovoltaic technology in the national energy transition. This figure corresponds to 60% of the target of 500 GW set for 2030.
The operating mechanism is clear: each gigawatt installed requires approximately 1.8 tons of metallurgic silicon and 40 kg of copper per MW of panels. The cumulative growth from 2023 to July 2026 implies an estimated annual requirement of over 5.4 million tons of silicon and 192,000 tons of copper for photovoltaic plants alone. This physical demand is not a theoretical projection: it is a material constraint that directly impacts global flows.
The Node in the Mining Chain
The key infrastructure to meet the demand for critical minerals lies in production capacity and the refining process. India has identified 30 strategic minerals — including lithium, cobalt, manganese, and rare earths — in 2023, but produces less than 15% of the quantity needed to cover domestic demand. The gap is filled by imports: 98% of the lithium used in electric batteries comes from Chile, Bolivia, and Australia.
The operational bottleneck lies in the refining process. According to a study by IISD (2025), India’s lithium refining capacity is less than 10,000 tons per year, compared to an estimated demand of over 80,000 tons by 2030. The absence of intermediate processing plants means that imported minerals must be transported to foreign factories for refining, incurring an additional cost estimated between 15% and 22% of the material’s value. This logistical delay and this cost are not only economic: they are systemic.
Who Pays and Who Benefits?
The increase in demand has created a new power dynamic between exporting countries. Chile, which produces 34% of the world’s lithium, has already signed an agreement with the Indian company Reliance Industries to supply 20,000 tons per year starting in 2027. At the same time, Australia — the main supplier of critical minerals for the electronics sector — increased export duties on lithium from January 2026, imposing an additional cost of 12% for Indian companies.
The cost is mainly borne by the national production system. Companies such as Tata Power and Adani Green Energy have had to renegotiate contracts with foreign suppliers, increasing the average value of materials by 18% in one year. In contrast, Australian and Chilean mining companies record operating margins above 37%, while Indian refining companies have not yet achieved economic profitability.
The Trajectory and Structural Limit
The expansion of installed capacity to 300 GW has created a physical demand that cannot be met without a radical change in supply chains. The structural limit is technological: India has limited production capacity for processing critical minerals, with plants under construction that will not be operational before 2030.
The key data to monitor over the next six months is the net import index of lithium and cobalt: if it exceeds 90% of domestic demand, it confirms strategic dependence. At the same time, current production capacity for lithium refining remains below 10,000 tons/year, a figure that will not change in the medium term without direct investment in advanced separation technologies.
Photo by Wietse Jongsma on Unsplash
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