blockage
Physical Bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz
As of August 15, 2026, according to data provided by AXSMarine, approximately 44.4 million barrels of Iranian crude oil were stranded in the Arabian Sea due to geopolitical tensions and a naval blockade imposed by the United States. This physical congestion represents a structural commercial bottleneck, not a contingent one: the Strait of Hormuz is the main route for Iranian oil exports, with over 20% of global crude oil transiting through this waterway. The inability to clear shipments has generated an excess of volumes awaiting clearance, creating direct pressure on global maritime markets.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the blockade does not only affect the export of Iranian crude oil, but extends to all transportation, financing and insurance operations related to the oil sector. As reported by Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, the economic pressure has already reached internal productions, aviation costs and vehicle fuel budgets, with consequences for government subsidiaries. The additional cost translates into a direct increase in demand for tankers and storage capacity, directly influencing the freight market.
The Iranian crude oil that did not reach Asia remained stranded off the Strait. The amount stuck at sea is almost double that already delivered, peaking at 44.4 million barrels.
— AXSMarine · Data updated on August 15, 2026
Rerouting and Increased Logistics Costs
The inability to transit through the Strait of Hormuz has prompted merchants to reroute towards alternative routes, increasing the average distance for shipments from Dubai or Bandar Abbas to Asian destinations. These new trajectories pass through the Strait of Malacca and along the Indian Ocean, adding an average of 12-15 days to the transit time compared to the direct route. The additional cost translates into a 10% increase in fuel costs for tankers and a 5% increase in freight rates, as indicated by FreightWaves.
The container market has been affected by the same dynamics: prices for Asia-U.S. West Coast routes have increased by 1%, to $6,826 per FEU, while those to the East Coast have risen by 2% to $9,576 per FEU. These increases are not solely due to seasonal demand, but to the systematic reconfiguration of logistics flows related to restrictions on Iranian crude oil. The effect has been amplified by the growing uncertainty in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, with export prices from Mexico increasing due to disruptions in flows from the Middle East.
The situation is exacerbated by a general uncertainty in the liquefied natural gas market, with routes from the Middle East disrupted and an uncertain recovery in Qatar.
— Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide · August 24, 2026
Strategic Leverage: Reconfiguration of Logistics Hubs
Shipping operators are adopting new operational levers to mitigate the impact of the blockage. One of the main strategies is the reconfiguration of transshipment nodes, with an increased demand for intermediate ports such as Colombo and Singapore. ANL has temporarily omitted Qingdao from its ACX service to avoid vessel bunching in the eastern Pacific, while MSC is restoring crossings through the Suez Canal after a thorough analysis of operational and safety conditions.
These strategic choices imply a change in flow management patterns: customs clearance times have increased, terminal capacities are under pressure, and the need for temporary storage has generated additional costs. Furthermore, the increased demand for tankers has prompted shipowners to review contracts with fuel suppliers, with increasing attention to alternative payment models and customs guarantees (bonds) in non-dollar currencies.
The Iranian blockage is driving a systematic reconfiguration of maritime routes, with a direct impact on transit times and operational costs for operators.
— FreightWaves · August 24, 2026
Impact on Margin and Working Capital
The final effect on the P&L is a compression of the gross margin. A 10% increase in fuel costs and a 5% increase in freight rates translate into a direct increase in the cost of goods sold (COGS) for companies operating on routes affected by the blockage. For a 200,000-ton tanker, this implies an annual increase of approximately $18 million in operating costs, without considering the additional cost of extra fuel for longer routes.
Working capital has been significantly impacted: immobilization of goods in transit has lengthened payment cycles and increased the need for short-term financing. Congestion in Asian ports, such as Durban, with delays exceeding 20 days (The Loadstar), has further exacerbated the problem. The combined effect of longer times and additional costs is reducing the available liquidity for logistics operators, forcing them to renegotiate contractual terms with customers.
Alternative routes are not only longer, but involve a 15% increase in storage costs and a 20% reduction in the average speed of tankers.
— Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide · August 24, 2026
Alert for the Business Decision-Maker
CFOs and Supply Chain Directors should monitor two key indicators: the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the amount of Iranian crude oil blocked at sea. A sustained increase in the BDI above 3,000 points indicates further pressure on logistics costs, while a growth in volumes blocked above 50 million barrels suggests that route reconfiguration may become structural. It is advisable to begin renegotiating contracts with fuel suppliers and consider using intermediate hubs to reduce the risk of delays.
Photo by Artin Bakhan on Unsplash
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