The Physical Bottleneck
Gas reserves in Europe are not decreasing due to political choices, but due to a lack of physical supply. The Equinor report, dated May 24, 2026, confirms that storage levels are currently between 35% and 37%, well below the seasonal average of 50%. This deficit has accumulated after a prolonged winter and a refilling season that began with stocks at 28% – the lowest in years. This data is not simply a deviation, but an indicator of a physical crisis: if the routes of the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked for another three months, European reserves would not be able to exceed 90% of the seasonal target, with immediate operational consequences. The tension is not in the rhetoric, but in the physical transportation capacity of liquefied natural gas.
The operational mechanism is clear: each day of delay in gas delivery increases the pressure on existing reserves. LNG tankers have an average transit time of 30 days from the Persian Gulf to Northern Europe. If the route is interrupted, there are no immediate alternatives: the regasification terminals in Germany, France, and Italy cannot operate beyond the planned capacity limits. The effect is not simply an energy shortage, but a gradual collapse of storage capacity, with direct consequences for electricity grids and the chemical industry.
The European Gas Storage Network: Architecture and Limitations
The European gas storage system consists of 18 main terminals, with a total capacity of 220 billion cubic meters. However, the effective usable capacity is lower, as not all deposits are active at the same time, and some have pressure limitations. The gas stored is mainly in liquid form, which requires temperatures of -162°C to be stored. The regasification process requires energy and time: a terminal with a capacity of 5 million tons per year takes approximately 24 hours to regasify an entire load, with an energy cost equal to 10% of the amount stored.
The main supply route passes through the Strait of Hormuz, with 22 ships of 150,000 tons each transiting every week. The closure of this route, even temporarily, implies an immediate reduction in the flow of 3.3 million tons per month. In the absence of alternatives, the storage system is in a state of increasing stress. Ships that were supposed to unload in Rotterdam or Livorno have been diverted to the Black Sea, with an increase in transit time of 10 days. This delay is not an inconvenience, but a collapse of the operational schedule.
Who Pays and Who Profits: The Balance of Losses
Economic losses are distributed asymmetrically. Chemical industries in Germany, which rely on gas for the production of ammonia and fertilizers, have already reduced production by 40%. According to data from BASF, every day of delay in gas delivery costs 12 million euros in lost output. Domestic consumers in Italy and France are already facing average tariff increases of 22% compared to the previous year, with peaks of 35% in some regions.
Conversely, companies operating in the liquefied natural gas maritime transport sector are recording an increase in revenues. Eni and TotalEnergies have doubled the term contracts for transport from Cyprus to Malta, with a 45% increase in charter rates. Ships that avoided the Strait of Hormuz gained a competitive advantage, as their cargoes arrived late but still within contractual limits. The cost of transport increased by 18 dollars per ton, with added value for fleet operators who anticipated the diversions.
Closure: When the System Recognizes Its Own Limit
The euphoria surrounding a potential negotiation between the United States and Iran assumed that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was temporary. Data indicate that, without an immediate restoration of routes, the European storage system cannot last more than three months. The limit is not political, but physical: storage capacity is not infinite, and each day of delay reduces the availability of buffer.
To monitor the situation, two indicators are crucial: the first is the utilization rate of reserves in Italy and Germany, which must exceed 75% by the end of June to avoid an emergency intervention. The second is the number of ships waiting in the ports of the Black Sea, which, if it exceeds 12, indicates a diversion system under pressure. The mechanism is no longer political, but operational: whoever controls the routes, controls the time.
Photo by Jesse Donoghoe on Unsplash
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