## The disconnect between production and innovation in material terms
The year 2026 marks a technical turning point in the African agrifood system: for the first time, maize production exceeds 700 million people fed, but the system’s capacity for energy conversion has not grown in proportion. In 2025, the average maize yield in sub-Saharan Africa was 2.1 tons per hectare, with a 23% gap compared to the estimated maximum potential. This gap is not due to a lack of physical inputs, but to a structural misalignment between production know-how and allocable innovation resources. Women, who manage over 70% of the biomass produced, are not integrated into research and development flows. The most granular quantitative data is the percentage of investments in agricultural innovation dedicated to projects focused on women: only 12%. This value represents a physical-economic point of tension: while the system requires a 23% increase in yield, resources to achieve this goal are concentrated on models that ignore the knowledge of women, which serves as a natural buffer against climate and market disruptions.
Consequently, the thermodynamic efficiency of the system is reduced not due to a lack of energy, but due to inefficient distribution. The African agrifood system is not in crisis due to a lack of resources, but due to a misallocation error. Maize production, which feeds 700 million people on 40 million hectares, requires a 23% increase in yield to avoid a gap of 28 million tons by 2050. However, most investments in agricultural innovation are not aimed at improving the system’s conversion capacity, but at developing hybrids that do not respond to women’s cultivation practices. This implies that the system is not trying to maximize output, but to maintain a model of innovation that excludes the main production actor.
## The constraint of undervaluing know-how
Women’s know-how is not a marginal element, but a natural buffer system that has proven to be resistant to climate and market disruptions. In Kenya, for example, women farmers maintained an average yield of 2.3 tons per hectare during 2024, despite an 18% increase in input costs and a 12% reduction in water availability. This result was achieved through soil conservation practices, crop rotation, and the use of local seeds, which were not included in the innovation models promoted by CIMMYT. CIMMYT research, which involved 1500 women in 12 countries, showed that integrating these practices can increase yield by 15% without increasing input costs. However, only 12% of investments in agricultural innovation have been allocated to projects that include these practices.
This implies that the African agricultural innovation system is inadequate to respond to real disruptions. While development models focus on hybrids with a theoretical yield of 3.5 tons per hectare, the system fails to transfer these technologies to women, who represent 70% of the agricultural workforce. The marginal cost of this exclusion is 28 million tons of missing biomass by 2050, equivalent to 140 billion MJ of energy not produced. At this point, the concept of buffer capacity comes into play: women’s know-how serves as a natural energy storage system, but is not valued as such. The undervaluation of know-how is not a technical error, but a strategic choice that reduces the resilience of the system.
## Crossing the threshold of sustainability
The sustainability threshold is exceeded when the system fails to compensate for the gap between production and demand. In 2025, the maize production gap in sub-Saharan Africa was 12 million tons, with an 18% increase in input costs and a 12% reduction in water availability. This led to a 5% reduction in the average yield, despite the use of advanced hybrids. The main cause is the lack of integration between innovation and local practices. Women, who manage 70% of the biomass, are not involved in seed development processes or training programs. This has created a gap between production know-how and allocable innovation resources.
The threshold was exceeded when the system began to rely on maize imports to cover the production gap. In 2025, sub-Saharan Africa imported 8 million tons of maize, at a cost of $2.4 billion. This has increased the system’s vulnerability to market shocks. CIMMYT’s response, which launched the Resilient Maize Hybrids for Sub-Saharan Africa project, projected a 23% increase in yield by 2030. However, the project does not include the integration of women’s cultivation practices, which have shown to be able to increase yield by 15% without increasing input costs. This implies that the system is not trying to maximize output, but to maintain a model of innovation that excludes the main production actor.
## Implications for the decision-maker: the leverage of know-how
Women’s know-how is not a cost, but a strategic asset. Integrating women’s cultivation practices into agricultural innovation programs can increase yield by 15% without increasing input costs. This implies an increase in operating margin of $1.2 billion within 90 days, if applied to 10 million hectares. Working capital can be reduced by $300 million, as the system will no longer need to rely on maize imports. The ignored operating leverage is the natural buffer capacity offered by women’s know-how, which serves as a natural energy storage system.
In my opinion, the gap between narrative and reality is not an error, but a strategic and instructive choice. The African agrifood system is not in crisis due to a lack of resources, but due to a misallocation error. The thermodynamic efficiency of the system is compromised not by a lack of energy, but by inefficient distribution. Women’s know-how is not a marginal element, but a natural buffer system that has proven to be resistant to climate and market disruptions. The undervaluation of know-how is not a technical error, but a strategic choice that reduces the resilience of the system. The ignored operating leverage is the natural buffer capacity offered by women’s know-how, which serves as a natural energy storage system.
Photo by Benjamin DeYoung on Unsplash
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