The Planned Collapse of Fishing in Peru
The anchovy season in Peru has been canceled for the first time since 1983, with a loss of approximately 120,000 tons of potential catches. This is not an isolated event: the ocean thermal anomaly has shifted the upwelling regime that fuels the abundant phytoplankton resources on which organisms in the food chain feed. The phenomenon, triggered by a “super” El Niño phase that began in June 2026, raised the surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific above +2°C compared to the historical average. This physical threshold has been exceeded not only in terms of intensity but also in duration: the pattern persisted for more than three consecutive months, a sign that indicates a stabilization of the climatic event beyond normal seasonality.
The collapse of anchovies has immediate and amplified effects on the global industrial chain. Anchovies are the main source of fish for the fish oil industry, used as feed in aquaculture and pig farming. Their absence has already caused an increase of 28% in international prices in the first half of 2026, resulting in a compression of operating margins for European animal feed producers. In fact, the fishing system is no longer able to function as an open market: climatic fluctuations have made production forecasts unreliable.
Supply chains are being reconfigured
At the same time that Peru has closed its fishing industry, fishermen in California have recorded a historic peak in tuna catches. This asymmetry is not coincidental: warmer El Niño waters have shifted the tuna bank to the northern Pacific, where the ecosystem has responded with a rapid expansion of prey populations. Data indicate that tuna production in California has increased by 37% compared to the average for the period 2016–2025. However, this availability does not translate into stability: supply is subject to temporal instability, making it impossible to integrate with existing distribution chains.
This results in a structural transformation in logistical practices. European distributors are shifting their orders from Peru to more stable areas, such as the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic coast of Spain. This shift implies the use of refrigerated ships for a longer journey, resulting in a 19% increase in logistics costs and a reduction in transport energy efficiency. Operationally, the system has lost its ability to react to external shocks: traditional supply chains relied on the continuity of flows from specific regions, but these sources have now become unpredictable.
The authorities’ response: regulation as a tool for survival
In this context, the European Union has launched a pilot program to monitor fishing in real time using multispectral satellites. The project, based on the Canaries constellation and integrated with analysis data provided by MDA Space, allows for traceability of catches within 48 hours of leaving port. This measure is not only technological: it implies the creation of a new export authorization regime, with preventive control over every shipment that exceeds historical volume thresholds for a specific region.
The change has significant distributional consequences. Traditional producer countries such as Peru and Chile see their access to European markets reduced, while new players — including Spain and Norway — strengthen their logistical control positions. The cost of regulation is measurable: the new system has increased the average time for license approval by 12%, with a direct impact on small fishing businesses that cannot afford market delays. However, from a food safety perspective, the reduction in the risk of overfishing has been calculated at 820 million tons equivalent of biomass preserved per year.
The infrastructural cost and the systemic trade-off
The impact KPI of the new regime is represented by an 8.4% decrease in the average speed of fresh fish shipments to Europe, measured from the first quarter of 2026 to the second. This reduction is not due to operational inefficiencies but to a new technical threshold: each shipment must be verified by the satellite system before being granted permission for navigation. The infrastructural cost associated with this measure amounts to €142 million per year, entirely absorbed by European funds for agricultural resilience.
Who pays this cost? Fishing logistics companies in countries of the Global South, which see their operating margin reduced from a minimum of 15% to a maximum of 30%. Conversely, managers of European port hubs gain a monopoly position on information: the ability to process and verify data in real time becomes the new competitive factor. Consequently, the balance of power shifts from those who produce to those who control the flows.
Photo by Panda Paper Roll on Unsplash
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