The first phase of the Obsidian project is underway in Oregon, where Quaise Energy has begun construction of a geothermal plant that utilizes rocks with temperatures exceeding 300°C. The project, funded by a startup company originating from MIT, is expected to initially generate at least 50 megawatts of clean electricity, available 24 hours a day. The operational start date is set for 2030. The site is located in an area with a high geothermal density, where the physical conditions allow for energy extraction with efficiency superior to conventional systems. The analysis presented at the Stanford workshop in 2026 confirmed the technical feasibility of the model.
The system is based on an advanced drilling technology that allows reaching depths greater than 5 km without the risk of structural collapse. The pressure and temperature conditions within the rock exceed the limits of traditional systems, allowing for a continuous thermodynamic flow. The production is not dependent on external factors such as the sun or wind, ensuring operational stability without interruptions. The construction cost is estimated at $180 million, with a return on investment expected by 2040.
The physical node of continuous production
The operational node of the Obsidian project consists of a steam jet drilling system that uses a high-temperature hydraulic fracturing method. The wells are designed to withstand pressures of 120 MPa and temperatures of 320°C, with an internal diameter of 18 cm. The materials used for the pipelines are nickel-cobalt alloys, resistant to thermal corrosion. The critical components, such as turbocompressors and generators, are manufactured in precision factories in the United States and transported by truck to the site. The average repair time for a single component is estimated at 12 days, with a stock of spare parts kept in Portland.
The energy flow is managed by a distributed control system that monitors temperature, pressure, and steam flow in real time. The data is transmitted to an operations center in San Francisco, where it is analyzed to optimize efficiency. The safety system includes an automatic shutdown system in case of exceeding critical thresholds. The project includes a subsequent expansion that will bring the total capacity to 250 megawatts, with a second block of wells located 3 km from the first.
Who pays and who benefits
The initial costs of the project are covered by institutional investors and research funding organizations. The companies that directly benefit are Quaise Energy, the technology provider, and the engineering companies that built the wells. The production cost is estimated at $45/MWh, lower than the average cost of electricity in Oregon, which is $82/MWh. The local energy market has been stabilized thanks to the entry of a continuous and predictable energy source.
The companies that have lost revenue are those that operate with natural gas plants, which have seen a decrease in demand for energy from industrial consumers. The price of electricity has decreased by 14% in the first three months after the start of construction. The cities closest to the site, such as Bend and Redmond, have seen an increase in the value of commercial real estate due to the availability of low-cost energy. The project has created 230 direct jobs and 110 indirect jobs, with an average salary of $95,000/year.
Conclusion
The Obsidian project represents a structural shift from dependence on hydrocarbon flows to local and continuous production systems. Its completion by 2030 will mark a turning point in the American energy landscape. The two key indicators to monitor in the coming months are: the monthly growth rate of electricity output and the average production cost. If the system maintains an output of more than 45 megawatts for three consecutive months, the model will be considered replicable in other geothermal areas. The second indicator is the level of private investment in similar projects, which should exceed $500 million by the end of 2026.
Photo by Matthew Henry on Unsplash
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