bottleneck
The Impending Collapse: Shanghai as a Logistical Bottleneck
The Port of Shanghai recorded a volume of 28.737 million TEU in the first half of 2026, with an annual growth rate of 6.2% compared to the same period in 2025. This figure is not only an operational record: it represents the highest concentration of physical goods in motion on a global scale. According to Alphaliner, the Chinese port has maintained its position as the world’s leading hub for 16 consecutive years, surpassing even the infrastructure of Ningbo-Zhoushan, which recorded growth of 8.8% with 22.9 million TEU during the same period. The gap between Shanghai and Singapore – second in the ranking with 22.742 million TEU – has now narrowed to just 160,000 units, but the operational difference is significant: the volume of goods passing through Shanghai exceeds historical physical capacity limits.
The non-linear growth of traffic has generated an accelerating effect on port congestion. The average customs clearance time in Shanghai has increased from 2.1 days in 2023 to 4.7 days in the first half of 2026, according to unpublished but verifiable data from SIPG. Consequently, the additional cost per TEU related to delays and congestion is estimated at $18–$23 for direct shipments, with peaks reaching up to $40 during peak periods. This dynamic is not only operational: it directly impacts the working capital of companies that must immobilize liquidity for weeks awaiting the release of goods.
The Bypass in Action: From Ningbo-Zhoushan to Prince Rupert
The expansion of Ningbo-Zhoushan, with the completion of the second phase of the Jintang hub in July 2026, has allowed the Chinese port to surpass Singapore as the second largest global hub. The infrastructure is designed to handle up to 35 million TEU per year and already operates at 91% of its nominal capacity. However, its growth has not alleviated the risk of overload: containers converging from Shanghai are often diverted to Ningbo to avoid port queues, creating an effect of “collateral collapse” rather than a true redistribution.
Parallelly, a transatlantic bypass is emerging. The new CANXPORT hub in Prince Rupert, operated by Ray-Mont Logistics and financed with $750 million, has been inaugurated to support Canadian exports to Asia. The infrastructure has already recorded a transit capacity of 1.2 million TEU per year and reduces travel time between northwestern North America and the eastern United States from 23 to 18 days compared to the traditional route via Los Angeles. The additional cost of transportation is estimated at $50–$65 per TEU, but compensates with a more stable operating margin and customs clearance times reduced to less than 24 hours.
Strategic Leverage: Reconfiguring Production Chains
The impact of congestion is not only logistical, but also shapes the re-engineering of supply chains. Companies operating with regular flows to Europe are shifting part of their loads from Shanghai to Ningbo-Zhoushan, where the handling cost per TEU is 12% lower than at the port of Shanghai. In addition, Chinese manufacturers exporting to Europe are experimenting with hybrid models: they use Shanghai as a primary hub for regional consolidation and then transfer goods by train to Ningbo or Qingdao before loading them onto transoceanic ships.
Another strategic lever is the adoption of joint alternative routes. The railway reconnection project between Tripoli and Homs, announced by Syria and Lebanon in August 2026, could offer an alternative route to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. If completed within two years, it would reduce transit times between East Asia and North Africa from 18 to 13 days, with an estimated savings of $25 per TEU in freight costs. However, the project is still in the technical phase, without announced funding.
Impact on margins and working capital: the new normal
The net effect of congestion in Shanghai translates into an increase in the cost of goods sold (COGS) for companies operating with direct flows. The average gross margin decreased by 0.8% between the first half of 2025 and that of 2026 due to the increase in transit costs and the reduction in the average speed of shipments. An internal analysis conducted by a European logistics provider found that the average additional cost per TEU, including delays, customs clearance, and surcharges, increased from $32 to $48 in six months.
The working capital required to manage a shipment from Shanghai has increased by 19% compared to 2024. The average time for liquidity immobilization before the release of goods is 38 days, compared to the usual 25 days. This increase has forced many companies to resort to short-term financing or to change Incoterms from FOB to CIF in order to shift the risk onto the ship.
Photo by Ralf Leineweber on Unsplash
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