The Geographical Shift of Congestion
The Gulf of Kutch, a vast bay on the western coast of India facing the Arabian Sea, recorded an unprecedented operational peak in September 2026. According to vessel tracking data from Vortexa, cited by The National, 82 Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfers were carried out in this area, handling a total of approximately 680,000 barrels per day. This volume does not represent marginal or experimental activity: it indicates a structural saturation of traditional maritime corridors through the Strait of Hormuz.
Congestion in the Strait of Hormuz, a historical bottleneck for global energy trade, has forced producers in the Persian Gulf to extend ship-to-ship operations into open sea westward. The transfer of cargo onto larger ships directly in the Gulf of Kutch serves as a release valve, but highlights an absorption capacity of flows that is approaching its physical limit. Energy logistics are no longer just a matter of commodity availability, but of operational space in maritime routes.
This geographical expansion of the STS phenomenon reveals a systemic constraint: the flexibility of energy supply chains is limited by the density of naval traffic. When major strategic passages become unmanageable, friction shifts to the peripheries of established routes, creating new critical points that require specific infrastructure and regulations.
The Infrastructural Fragility of Karachi
For Pakistan, this geographical dynamic translates into a concrete and immediate energy risk. The country is heavily reliant on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Qatar to meet domestic and industrial demand, especially during the winter months when the need for heating and electricity generation increases. Masood Nabi, CEO of Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL), stated at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh that the 2026-27 winter will be challenging, not due to a lack of gas available on the global market, but due to severe disruptions in transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The operational situation at Pakistani terminals is critical. The Engro terminal resumed regasification only on October 14, 2026, after being closed since September 26 due to a lack of ships. The Al-Areesh ship, arriving from Qatar, began injecting 150 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of gas into the national network. Meanwhile, the second terminal, operated by Pakistan GasPort Limited (PGPL), has been out of operation since October 9 due to insufficient LNG stocks.
The gap between theoretical and operational capacity is evident. Pakistan needs 24 LNG cargoes to cover winter requirements, but by mid-October it had received only one. Authorities are trying to acquire additional cargoes from Qatar with the assistance of Iranian and US officials, but it is expected that a maximum of two cargoes will arrive this month, confirming the difficulty of ensuring regular flows in a context of generalized maritime congestion.
The Paradox of Availability
There is an apparent contradiction between the abundance of gas in the global market and the perceived scarcity in Karachi. Qatar, the main supplier to Pakistan, has significant export capacity. However, physical geography dictates that gas must pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach the Pakistani coast. The congestion in this strait is not a temporary event, but a structural condition fueled by geopolitical tensions and the density of commercial traffic.
The logical solution would be to divert routes or use alternative corridors, but the regional maritime infrastructure does not offer practical alternatives. LNG ships must follow specific routes for safety and efficiency reasons, and the congestion in the Strait creates a domino effect that spreads to the Pakistani coast. The STS transfer in the Gulf of Kutch is an operational response to the lack of direct transit capacity, but it does not eliminate the risk of delays and interruptions.
Public narratives often focus on the availability of energy resources, neglecting the complexity of their physical distribution. Pakistan’s problem is not only economic or contractual, but infrastructural and logistical. The ability to import LNG depends on the fluidity of maritime routes, which in turn are constrained by geopolitical and physical factors beyond the direct control of final consumers.
Implications for Energy Resilience
The current configuration of Pakistan’s energy supply chain highlights a structural vulnerability. The dependence on a single, critical maritime corridor, the Strait of Hormuz, exposes the country to systemic risks that cannot be mitigated simply by increasing stockpiles or diversifying suppliers without addressing the underlying logistical bottleneck.
Congestion in the Gulf of Kutch and intermittent closures of Pakistani terminals are symptoms of an increasingly congested global energy system. Energy resilience cannot be guaranteed solely by financial availability to purchase LNG, but requires investments in alternative infrastructure, diversified routes, and strategic storage capacity that can absorb shocks from logistical disruptions.
The gap between the narrative of energy security based on contracts and the physical reality of maritime transit is widening. Without structural interventions in global logistics, the winter risks for Pakistan and other countries dependent on Gulf routes will remain high, regardless of purchasing power in the spot market.
Photo by Fejuz on Unsplash
⎈ Contents generated by multi-agent AI under Human-in-Command protocol in Epistemic Safety mode. Read the Operational Disclaimer.
> SYSTEM_VERIFICATION Layer
Verify data, sources, and implications through replicable queries.