On March 20, 2026, a US startup announced the commercialization of thermal batteries capable of storing energy as heat, surpassing the limitations of existing technologies. This development comes at a crucial time: global energy consumption for data centers increased by 47% in 2025, with a peak demand of 10 GW in Ohio alone, where the federal government recently authorized a 10 GW natural gas-fired project. The startup, mentioned in a report by OilPrice, has developed a system that uses high-thermal density materials to retain energy for hours, reducing the need for intermittent sources such as solar or wind power.
This technological advancement occurs against a backdrop of increasing tension between the exponential demand for energy for AI and the ability of existing infrastructure to handle it. According to a report by Luminity, thermal batteries could reduce storage costs by 30% compared to lithium-based solutions, an advantage that could accelerate the energy transition. However, large-scale production requires a diversified supply chain, with materials such as samarium, extracted by companies like Lynas Rare Earths in Malaysia, which has recently begun producing rare earth oxides needed for high-performance magnets.
The Game-Changing Prototype
The Anatomy of the Distribution Network
The supply chain for thermal batteries relies on critical components often concentrated in a few countries. Samarium, for example, is primarily extracted in China and Malaysia, with Lynas Rare Earths holding 90% of the global rare earth separation capacity outside of China. The production of refractory materials, needed to contain heat, depends on suppliers in India and Russia, while storage modules are assembled in Vietnam and Thailand. This geographic concentration creates vulnerabilities: a disruption in the ports of Singapore or Shanghai could paralyze production for months, considering that the average repair time for cargo ships is 14 days, with daily storage costs exceeding $2,500 per container.
The assembly process requires strict technical standards, with tolerances of ±0.5 mm for refractory components and quality control involving cyclic thermal tests to verify resistance to temperatures above 1,200°C. These requirements increase production costs, which currently stand at $150 per kWh, compared to $130 for lithium thermal batteries. However, the advantage lies in the scalability: a production plant capable of generating 1 GW of thermal batteries requires 500,000 tons of base materials, a quantity that can be handled by Panamax-class container ships with a carrying capacity of 65,000 TEU.
Economic and Geopolitical Impacts
The transition to thermal batteries is already rewriting the balance sheets of key companies. H&M, for example, has invested in Rondo Energy to replace coal in its textile manufacturing plants, reducing energy costs by 22% but increasing dependence on Asian suppliers. This shift has created tensions with traditional suppliers in the Middle East, where the conflict between Iran and the United States has caused a 40% increase in maritime transportation costs, with ships having to avoid the Persian Gulf, lengthening delivery times by 7-10 days.
At the same time, companies like Voltanova are negotiating agreements with governments to accelerate production. In India, where the government has launched a plan to install 5 GW of thermal batteries by 2030, local companies are competing with multinational corporations to obtain licenses for rare earth extraction. This has led to a 15% increase in the price of mining licenses, with companies like Atlantic Lithium in Ghana reviewing their strategies to adapt to the new demand.
Scenario in 3-5 Years
In my opinion, the real challenge will not be the technology, but the logistical capacity to distribute thermal batteries at a rate that meets demand. Two indicators will be crucial: port traffic in the ports of Singapore and Shanghai, which will represent 60% of global component exports, and the price of samarium, which could fluctuate between $1,200 and $1,800 per ton depending on production in China. If the supply chain can diversify suppliers and reduce transit times, thermal batteries could become the definitive solution for AI. Otherwise, the conflict between exponential growth and rigid infrastructure will turn into a systemic crisis, with repercussions not only economic but also geopolitical.
Photo by Claudio Schwarz on Unsplash
The texts are autonomously processed by Artificial Intelligence models