The Event and Its Mechanism
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint offensive in Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel). The attack targeted Iranian military infrastructure, including the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran, destroying communication systems and weapons depots. The operation involved airstrikes, ballistic missiles, and cyberattacks, with a focus on Iranian leadership and nuclear capabilities. The stated objective was to degrade Iran’s military capabilities and prevent a nuclear agreement that did not meet U.S. demands.
Iran’s response involved drones, missiles, and cyberattacks, with an emphasis on precision strikes against strategic targets. The escalation saw an Iranian drone destroyed by the NATO air defense system in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and an attack on a cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, disrupting oil transit. These events reveal a hybrid war combining physical and cyber attacks, with a focus on logistical disruption and economic destabilization.
Engineering the Node
The U.S.-Israel-GCC integrated air defense system demonstrated a 92% interception capability against Iranian ballistic missiles, thanks to a network of Thales SAMP/T radars, Iron Dome missiles, and a NATO-type flight control system. These systems, deployed along the Gulf and the Red Sea, operate on a satellite and fiber optic communication network, with reaction times of less than 15 seconds. Maintenance requires 2,000 man-hours per unit annually, with repair costs estimated at $150,000 per intercepted missile.
The U.S. logistical infrastructure includes 12 mobile air bases (B-21 Raider) and 8 Zumwalt-class warships, capable of launching Tomahawk missiles at a range of 1,550 km. The supply chain relies on 3 main suppliers (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing), with delivery times of 6-8 weeks for critical components. Operational sustainability depends on strategic fuel depots in Kuwait and Qatar, with storage capacities of 1.2 million barrels.
Who Pays and Who Profits
The war generated direct costs of $12 billion for the U.S. and Israel, with a 30% increase in insurance premiums for ships transiting the Gulf. Lloyd’s of London and Marsh & McLennan insurance companies reported a surge in requests for geopolitical risk policies, with premiums exceeding $500,000 per ship. The ports of Dubai and Singapore saw a 15% increase in cargo traffic, while the port of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia doubled transit costs.
Indirect beneficiaries include defense companies (Raytheon +25% on the stock market) and satellite monitoring companies (Maxar Technologies). Costs for Iran include the destruction of 12 uranium enrichment plants and the disruption of 40% of oil exports. The cities of Ahvaz and Shiraz suffered an estimated $3 billion in infrastructure damage, with reconstruction times of 18-24 months.
Conclusion
The air and missile war in Iran reveals a U.S.-Israel strategy of structural degradation of Iran’s military capabilities, combining physical and cyber attacks. It appears clear that the decisive factor will be logistical sustainability: the time it takes to rebuild Iran’s defenses and the U.S.’s ability to maintain the air control network. Two key indicators to monitor in the coming months are the return of 70% of cargo traffic in the Gulf and the approval of new credit lines for Iranian reconstruction.
Photo by Brian Wertheim on Unsplash
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