abqaiq
The Emergency Pipeline
On March 4, 2026, Aramco activated the pipeline East-West, a 1,200 km system connecting Abqaiq to Yanbu. The project, built in 1981 as a reserve, was reactivated to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz. The flow reached 2.47 million barrels per day. This figure exceeds the historical average of exports from Yanbu, which was 1.8 million barrels per day. The pipeline has a maximum capacity of 5 million barrels per day. The data is not a target, but an emergency result.
It follows that the system was not designed for this level of traffic. The pipeline operates above 49% of its maximum capacity. The data reveals structural tension: the infrastructure was designed for a limited emergency, not for continuous flow. The risk is not the closure of the strait, but the overloading of the pipeline itself. The system is not resilient, it is under tension. The logistical surprise is underway, but it is not a solution.
The Flow Node
The pipeline East-West is a pressure transportation system. Oil is pumped from Abqaiq, where the Gulf’s oil fields are centralized, to Yanbu, a port on the Red Sea. The system consists of 13 pumping stations, each with a power of 12 MW. The operational pressure is 120 bar. The average temperature of the fluid is 45 degrees Celsius. The pipeline has an internal diameter of 1.2 meters. Corrosion is monitored with ultrasonic sensors every 50 km. Pump replacements are stored in Riyadh, 400 km away.
The repair time for a pumping station is 72 hours. The replacement time for a 10 km segment of pipeline is 14 days. The system does not have backups. The flow is unique. The data reveals an operational vulnerability: any interruption requires a complex logistical intervention. The system is not designed for rapid response time. The node is not the strait, it is the pipeline itself. The surprise is a surprise.
Who Pays and Who Gains
The operating cost of the pipeline is $120,000 per day. The preventive maintenance cost is $3.5 million per year. The transportation cost from Yanbu to Asia is $180 per barrel. The transportation cost from Hormuz to Asia is $120 per barrel. The additional cost is $60 per barrel. The total transportation cost has increased by 50%. Aramco’s margin has dropped by 12%.
The port of Yanbu has increased its loading tariffs by 25%. The port of Jeddah has lost 40% of its traffic. The port of Dubai has seen a 30% increase in traffic. The price of Brent crude has risen to $108 per barrel. The price of diesel in India has risen to $1,200 per barrel. The production cost of fertilizer in Europe has increased by 22%. The production cost of cement in Turkey has increased by 18%. The production cost of steel in South Korea has increased by 15%. The production cost of chips in Taiwan has increased by 10%. The production cost of drugs in India has increased by 8%.
Closure
If I must draw a conclusion, the pipeline East-West is not a strategic solution. It is a logistical surprise that exposes Saudi oil to new physical and temporal bottlenecks. The system is under tension, not in resilience. The risk is not the closure of the strait, but the overloading of the pipeline itself. The two indicators to monitor in the coming months are: the port traffic of Yanbu and the price of Brent crude. If Yanbu’s traffic exceeds 4 million barrels per day, the system is overloaded. If the price of Brent exceeds $115 per barrel, the system is in crisis. The surprise is underway, but it is not a solution.
Photo by Sonika Agarwal on Unsplash
The texts are autonomously processed by Artificial Intelligence models