The Strait of Hormuz Blockade and the Collapse of the Sulfuric Acid Supply Chain
On April 13, 2026, the United States implemented a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the transit of 1.2 million tons of sulfur per month from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. The blockade, announced by President Trump and carried out by a fleet of over twelve warships, prevented the passage of merchant ships carrying critical raw materials. The transport of sulfur, essential for the production of sulfuric acid, was interrupted at a time when the market was already experiencing tensions. The price of sulfur rose to $575/t, an increase of 15% compared to pre-conflict levels. The disruption directly impacted the processes of copper extraction, as 20% of global production depends on sulfuric acid derived from sulfur. This mechanism is not related to the price of oil, but to the physics of chemical flows.
The closure of the strait created a structural collapse in industrial flows. Copper is not extracted directly from the ore, but through chemical processes that require sulfuric acid. Its production is concentrated in HPAL (High-Pressure Acid Leaching) plants, which operate in Indonesia, Chile, and Australia. These plants have an inventory of sulfur of only 1-2 months, making them vulnerable to supply disruptions. The inability to replenish supplies has already caused delays in production, resulting in a reduction in global production capacity. The crisis is not economic, but physical: it is not a lack of demand, but a material blockage of an essential input.
The Copper Production Chain and Dependence on Sulfur
The copper extraction process using HPAL requires sulfuric acid to dissolve the oxidized copper ore. 92% of the copper produced in this way depends on sulfuric acid derived from sulfur. 24% of global sulfur production comes from the Middle East, with 50% of the maritime transport passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade interrupted the flow of 83.87 million tons of sulfur per year, resulting in a reduction in the capacity to produce sulfuric acid. Sulfuric acid factories in Indonesia, which import 75% of their sulfur from the Middle East, have reduced production by 40% in less than two weeks.
The merchant ships that transport sulfur are designed for specific routes: 70% of the units have a carrying capacity of 100,000 tons and travel at an average speed of 14 knots. The repair time for a sulfuric acid production plant is 60 days, and the cost of replacing a production line is 180 million euros. The lack of spare parts on site and the dependence on centralized suppliers have slowed down the recovery. The blockade has exposed the fragility of the system: a single geographic route controls an essential input for 20% of global copper production.
Who Pays and Who Benefits in the Copper Crisis
Mining companies with HPAL plants in Indonesia, such as PT Vale Indonesia, have reduced copper production by 18,000 tons per month. The additional cost of purchasing sulfuric acid from alternative sources is estimated at 350 euros/t, with a 22% increase in profitability. The company has already announced a 45-day delay in the delivery of materials for the electrical sector. In parallel, sulfuric acid producers in Europe, such as BASF, have increased prices by 45% to meet the emerging demand. The copper market has registered an increase of 12% in prices in just one month, with a peak at $12.80/lb.
Companies operating in transit areas not affected by the blockade, such as those in Canada and Australia, have seen an increase in demand for copper from battery and cable manufacturers. The company Lattice Materials, with a plant in Montana, has increased the production volumes of silicon for photovoltaics by 15%, taking advantage of the scarcity of copper for cables. The blockade has created a distortion in global flows: the transportation costs of copper have increased by 30% due to the need for alternative routes, while the price of silicon has fallen by 5% due to overproduction. The logistical advantage went to those who own storage capacity and internal infrastructure.
Conclusion
The copper crisis is not a secondary consequence of the conflict, but a direct effect of the physics of chemical flows. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affected not oil, but an invisible input: sulfur. The global dependence on a single route for a critical material has exposed a systemic collapse. In the coming months, the two key indicators to monitor are: the level of sulfuric acid inventory in HPAL plants in Indonesia and the price of copper in spot markets. If the first exceeds 45 days of autonomy, global copper production could be reduced by 30%. If the price of copper exceeds $13.50/lb, a mechanism of material substitution will be triggered, resulting in an increase in demand for silicon and aluminum. The real balance will be decided not by negotiation, but by the sedimentation of physical tensions in logistical nodes.
Photo by Sander Weeteling on Unsplash
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