A Drop of 609,000 Barrels and an Offshore Block That’s Redefining the Game
In the week ending February 13, 2026, US crude oil inventories fell by 609,000 barrels, a figure that seems insignificant compared to the record growth of strategic reserves. But at 1,200 kilometers east of Caracas, another number is rewriting the rules: the Stabroek offshore block in Guyana produces 1.2 million barrels per day and aims for 2 million by 2026. This volume, generated from 60 offshore platforms and a 120-kilometer pipeline connecting fields to the Loran refinery, represents one-third of the GDP of a country with 800,000 inhabitants.
The Submarine Geography Transforming a Nation
Discovered by ExxonMobil in 2015, the Stabroek block spans over 6.5 million hectares. Extraction operations rely on semi-submerged platforms operating at depths of up to 1,500 meters, with an onboard crude oil and seawater separation system. The crude is pumped through 30-inch diameter pipelines to the Loran refinery, built in 18 months with a $12 billion investment. This facility, unique in South America, has a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day and serves as a hub for ship transfers to the US and Europe.
The Chain Control and Its Implications
ExxonMobil holds 45% of the block with a long-term stake that includes an obligation to reinvest 20% of royalties in local infrastructure. The Guyana Energy Agency manages the remaining 15%, but the true strategic leverage lies in the pipeline. Constructed from ASTM A53 Grade B steel, it requires scheduled maintenance every 18 months and takes 45 days for a full replacement. Any disruption, such as that recorded in 2024 due to an electrical failure, costs $7 million per day in production losses.
Who Pays and Who Gains in the Value Chain
The exponential growth of Guyana has pushed local oil prices above Brent by $3 per barrel thanks to crude quality (API 35). Exxon saw revenues increase by 22% in 2025, while Guyanese government royalties grew by 40%. However, the cost for the population is evident: consumer price index rose by 15% in 2025 with a 30% increase in industrial energy costs. In Caracas, crude production fell to 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, down 25% from 2020.
Monitoring the Sedimentation of Tensions
In my view, the real game will be decided over the next months through two indicators: the production rate of the Stabroek block (which must exceed 1.5 million barrels per day by June) and the effective capacity of the Loran-Port Kaituma pipeline, currently operating at 78% of its theoretical capacity. The territorial dispute with Venezuela, requiring international arbitration, could accelerate or delay project expansion, but the real bottleneck remains Exxon’s ability to maintain market share in a context of growing competition from new offshore discoveries in Colombia.
Photo by Ian on Unsplash
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