The Strait of Hormuz and Risk Calculation
On February 17, 2026, Iran temporarily closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz for military exercises, leading to an increase in oil prices. This strait, only 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, is a critical bottleneck for maritime oil transportation, with approximately 17 million barrels per day passing through it, accounting for about 21% of global crude trade.
The temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz reveals a fundamental operational mechanism: geopolitics of oil is measured in tons and transit times. Every hour the strait remains closed can translate into millions of dollars in additional costs for oil companies and end consumers.
Anatomy of a Bottleneck
The Strait of Hormuz is an artificial waterway created by humans, but its strategic importance is natural. Ships navigating through it must travel along a narrow corridor with depths that can reach up to 300 meters. Traffic management is complex and requires coordination between Iranian, Omani, and international authorities.
Key infrastructure includes the Kharg Island oil terminal in Iran, from which many of the tankers traversing the strait depart, and Fujairah Port in the United Arab Emirates, a crucial hub for storage and refueling. The capacity to manage traffic is limited, and any disruption can cause significant delays and increased costs.
Deutsche ReGas and the Mukran LNG Terminal
While the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point for oil, the Mukran LNG terminal in Germany, operated by Deutsche ReGas, represents another example of strategic energy infrastructure. The terminal, which uses floating storage regasification units (FSRUs), reopened after being temporarily closed due to ice in the Baltic Sea.
Deutsche ReGas used the Energos Power and Neptune FSRUs to maintain operations during closure periods. This terminal is part of a broader network of emerging energy infrastructure in Europe, serving as alternatives to traditional oil and gas flows.
Who Pays and Who Profits
Disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz directly impact oil companies and consumers. Companies like Saudi Aramco and ADNOC face additional costs for security and delays, while European and Asian consumers see fuel price increases. Conversely, specialized shipping companies operating alternative routes and maritime security service providers may experience increased demand and revenue.
In Germany, the reopening of the Mukran LNG terminal allowed Deutsche ReGas to resume regasification operations, reducing dependence on Russian gas and offering a safer and more diversified alternative. This benefited not only Germany but also Central European countries that rely on German gas.
Operational Indicators
If I had to draw a conclusion, the stability of the Strait of Hormuz and the efficiency of LNG terminals like Mukran will be key indicators to monitor in the coming months. Maritime traffic through the strait and volumes of liquefied natural gas managed by European terminals will provide important signals on geopolitical tensions and energy market dynamics.
Those who control these critical infrastructures hold real power, and the ability to anticipate emerging constraints will be crucial for navigating an increasingly complex and interconnected energy landscape.
Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash
Texts are autonomously elaborated from AI models