The Fact and Its Mechanism
On February 28, 2026, the US-Israel-Iran conflict led to the closure of 20% of global LNG trade, with 98% of Iranian internet traffic disrupted. This event exposed the structural fragility of the global energy system, where 20% of oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The US attack directly impacted Iranian storage capacity, with Kuwait beginning to close wells due to a lack of storage space.
“Oil prices could soar to as much as $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if the critical Strait of Hormuz remains off limits for tankers,” stated Saad al-Kaabi, Kuwait’s Minister of Energy.
The closure of the waterway triggered a domino effect: Brent crude prices rose to $90/barrel, with WTI at $84, while European gas recorded a 50% jump in one week. These data, reported by Bloomberg and ICE, demonstrate how a single critical point can destabilize entire markets.
Engineering the Bottleneck
The Strait of Hormuz, 39 kilometers wide, is the bottleneck for 20% of global oil. Its closure directly impacted Asian refineries, which rely on Middle Eastern crude for 60% of their needs. Iranian storage capacity, estimated at 150 million barrels, was reduced to 40% due to damage to distribution infrastructure.
“We’ve also struck Iran’s equivalent of Space Command, which degrades their ability to threaten Americans,” stated Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of US Central Command.
This strike limited Iran’s response capabilities, but did not resolve the structural problem: 70% of the tankers transiting the channel have no immediate alternatives, with alternative routes adding 10-15 days of navigation.
The ability to bypass the global energy system is limited. 90% of Asian refineries lack access to alternative crude sources, with transportation costs increasing by 30-50%. This scenario risks the production capacity of countries like China, which imports 70% of its crude oil.
Who Pays, Who Benefits
US oil companies are increasing revenues, with ExxonMobil reporting a 25% increase in selling prices. Non-OPEC+ producing countries, such as Russia, are benefiting from the price increase, with a 15% increase in revenues.
“Moscow is giving Iran the locations of U.S. forces, including warships and aircraft,” reported the Washington Post, citing anonymous sources.
This logistical support strengthens Moscow’s position in the global market.
The costs are borne by consumers and industries. In Europe, the price of gas has exceeded $40/MWh, with a 40% increase in energy costs for companies. China, with 70% of its crude oil imported, will see an increase in production costs that could reduce the competitiveness of its exports.
Conclusion
The true cost of this crisis will not only be economic, but also political. Governments will have to decide whether to invest in alternative infrastructure, with estimated costs of $500 billion for new routes and terminals. Two indicators to monitor: traffic in the port of Jebel Ali (UAE) and the price of gas in China.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz is a nightmare for global energy markets,” stated Cameron Abadi and Adam Tooze in Foreign Policy.
The resilience of the system will depend on the ability to diversify, not just to defend.
Photo by Sergey Sukhov on Unsplash
Texts are autonomously processed by Artificial Intelligence models