The Missed Bet of the National Oil Corporation
On February 20, 2026, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) of Libya announced the end of the first licensing round for oil in 17 years without concrete results. The initiative, launched in March 2025, offered 22 blocks (19 undeveloped discoveries) between land and sea, attracting 44 companies and a consortium. Among the participants were Eni, TotalEnergies, BP, Repsol, and OMV, along with new entrants. 37% of the pre-selected companies did not conclude agreements, revealing an infrastructural system unsuitable for managing complex projects. Offshore blocks, for example, require extraction platforms and storage terminals that do not exist, while onshore blocks require pipeline networks and refineries in still unstable areas.
The Geography of Physical Constraints
The 22 Libyan blocks are distributed in critical areas: block 110, for example, is located in the Gulf of Sidra, where marine currents and depth (up to 1,500 meters) complicate the installation of platforms. For onshore development, block 74 requires extending the existing pipeline network, which passes through areas with recent conflicts. The NOC, despite having 37 pre-qualified companies, has not provided details on the infrastructure costs required. Eni, which expressed interest in block 109, stated that initial costs would exceed $2 billion just for the installation of an offshore platform, with a realization time of at least 5 years.
The Chain of Unseen Dependencies
The failure of the round reveals a chain of infrastructural dependencies. New projects would require the import of high-pressure drilling technologies (such as those from Schlumberger) and the training of a scarce local workforce. Existing terminals, such as Cerea and Marsa el Brega, have limited storage capacity (12 and 18 million barrels respectively) and are not designed to handle flows of crude oil from new sources. Even the maritime distribution network is fragile: the port of Tripoli, the main hub for exports, has only one operating pier for 150,000 DWT ships, with loading times exceeding 72 hours.
Who Pays and Who Gains
The NOC missed an opportunity to attract foreign investment, with a direct impact on state revenues. Eni and TotalEnergies, which had expressed interest, have reduced exploration spending in Libya, shifting resources to Niger and Angola. The city of Misurata, which hosts a key refining plant, has seen a decline in crude oil supplies, increasing costs for the local industry. Conversely, service companies like Halliburton have seen an increase in requests for maintenance projects in existing areas, exploiting the lack of new infrastructure.
Operational Indications
It appears clear that the NOC will need to revise its licensing strategy, focusing on blocks with existing infrastructure. Two indicators to monitor: the completion rate of ongoing projects (currently 68%) and the flow of foreign investment in Libya, which in 2025 fell to $1.2 billion, 40% less than in 2024. Entering a more mature age will require accepting that infrastructure is not built in a year, but in cycles of decades.
Photo by Justin Shen on Unsplash
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