Estrazione di potassio offshore nel Sergipe a 2,5 km di profondità con investimento fino a R$ 11,5 miliardi

Geological Structure and Depth Constraint

South Atlantic Potash (SAP) has identified a layer of sylvinite with a thickness of 27.5 meters at a depth of 2.5 km below the seabed in the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin, in northeastern Brazil. This geological formation, located in a basin historically oriented towards hydrocarbon production, forms the physical basis for a project that aims to replace imports with a strategic national reserve. The depth and extent of the deposit, estimated at over 3 billion tons, define the maximum potential of the resource, but also impose the technical limitations of the infrastructure required for extraction.

Accessing this asset requires a capital investment (Capex) that the company estimates to be between R$ 5 billion and R$ 11.5 billion (approximately US$ 2.1-2.3 billion), with commercial production expected in 2030 or 2031. The choice of extraction technology, solution mining, eliminates the need for large underwater excavations and management of solid waste. This approach reduces variable operating costs compared to traditional mining, focusing on the stability of injection and brine recovery wells.

Impact on Logistics Costs and Production Margins

Brazil currently imports 96% of the potassium needed for its agricultural production, exposing fertilizer manufacturers and farmers to international price volatility and risks in the global supply chain. The introduction of a domestic production capacity of 2 million tons per year of potassium chloride (KCl) aims to fill this structural gap. The target volume represents approximately 14% of the estimated national consumption of 14 million tons, providing a logistical buffer but not complete self-sufficiency.

The location of the asset in northeastern Brazil offers direct logistical advantages for neighboring agricultural regions, reducing transportation costs compared to imports from Atlantic or Pacific ports. Reducing dependence on imports from Russia, Ukraine and Canada transforms an external geopolitical risk into an internal technical constraint. For the agricultural decision-maker, this means greater predictability of the cost of production factors (COGS) per hectare, mitigating the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on spot prices for potassium.

Existing Infrastructure and Project Scalability

SAP has mapped nine exploratory targets in the Baixo Mosqueiro area, leveraging geological data and previous drilling from the oil and gas industry. The availability of energy, road, and port infrastructure in the region is a critical enabling factor for the economic feasibility of the project. The company holds approximately 189,000 hectares authorized for mineral exploration by ANM (Agência Nacional de Mineração), ensuring the territorial control necessary for the development phases.

The proposed extraction technique, supported by Agência Sergipe de Desenvolvimento (Desenvolve-SE), does not use aggressive chemical reagents and does not require the construction of new containment dams. This reduces operational risks related to the management of mineral waste. However, dependence on existing infrastructure creates an interdependence with the energy sector: the stability of electricity and water supply is a prerequisite for maintaining the productivity of the dissolution wells.

Operational Scenario and Falsifiability

The actual impact on the safety of NPK inputs will depend on the ability of SAP to meet construction timelines and the actual extraction costs. The project is classified as POTENTIAL: sources confirm the existence of the deposit and the technology, but do not yet demonstrate operational profitability in a volatile market environment. The central thesis is that the new asset will reduce risk premiums on the potash supply chain in Brazil.

This projection fails if energy costs for pumping and managing brackish water exceed initial estimates, making offshore KCl less competitive compared to imports. The main falsifiability criterion is achieving the target production of 2 Mt/year by 2031 without significant delays in environmental or technical permits. The presence of a stable domestic supply will allow local producers to negotiate better conditions with global traders, stabilizing the gross margin per hectare for high-potassium intensity crops.

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