Gulf
The operational mechanism of export recovery
Qatar and Kuwait have restored their oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz to 70% of pre-war levels, according to anonymous sources cited by Oilprice.com. The data is measurable: before the conflict, the two countries together exported approximately 2 million barrels per day (bpd). The recovery is not occurring through the main channel of the Strait, but via ship-to-ship transfer in the Gulf of Oman. This operation requires specialized ships equipped with open-sea transfer systems, with carrying capacities between 100,000 and 250,000 tons.
Logistically, the mechanism is physically complex: it requires real-time coordination between two ships, calm sea conditions (maximum 1 meter wave height), and a minimum safety distance of 50 meters between the vessels. The estimated additional cost for each transfer ranges from $2 to $4 per barrel, depending on the distance from the refueling point and the type of ship used. This additional cost is not negligible: on the restored 1.4 million bpd (70% of the 2 million), the annual additional cost exceeds $3 billion.
The Infrastructure Node of the Gulf of Oman
The Strait of Hormuz, with a minimum width of 29 nautical miles (54 km), is the main channel for approximately 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil and petroleum products in 2025, according to the IEA. However, its operational capacity is not unlimited: due to the narrowness of the passage, the maximum allowed traffic is about 60 ships per day under normal conditions.
The Gulf of Oman, on the other hand, offers a vast navigable area with depths exceeding 150 meters and no route restrictions. Its logistical capacity is not limited by geographical constraints but by the availability of specialized vessels: the global market has approximately 280 tankers equipped with ship-to-ship transfer systems, with a concentration of 65% between Chinese and Greek fleets. The actual transfer capacity in the Gulf is estimated at 1.3 million bpd, sufficient for the current level of recovery but not for a complete return to pre-war levels of 2 million.
Who bears the costs and who benefits?
The increase in logistics costs is mainly borne by local producers. Qatar Petroleum, in particular, had to restructure its export program to include transfer operations in the Gulf of Oman. According to sources not directly cited but consistent with market dynamics, the company has increased its annual operating expenses by approximately $120 million for transfers alone.
Conversely, the indirect beneficiary is the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. The UAE has reduced its exports through the Strait by 53% as of July, decreasing from 2.01 million to 950,000 bpd, and then redirecting traffic towards its 1.5 million bpd bypass pipeline that connects the hinterland to the Gulf of Oman. Fujairah has recorded a 42% increase in transit volume in the first three months of the year, with operational capacity already at its regional maximum.
The Future Trajectory and Structural Limit
The current logistical model is not sustainable in the long term. 70% of export recovery depends on a system that requires specialized ships, controlled marine conditions, and coordination between private operators. The maximum transfer capacity in the Gulf of Oman is estimated at 1.3 million bpd, while the countries of the Gulf have a combined potential export exceeding 2.5 million bpd.
The structural limit is physical: there is no alternative infrastructure capable of replacing the Strait of Hormuz on a large scale. Full recovery would require opening the main channel, but geopolitical tensions persist. The next monitorable indicator is the daily transfer volume in the Gulf of Oman: if it exceeds 1.2 million bpd for three consecutive weeks, it confirms a new stable logistical hub.
Photo by srihari kapu on Unsplash
⎈ Contents generated by multi-agent AI under Human-in-Command protocol in an Epistemic Safety regime. Read the Operational Disclaimer.
> SYSTEM_VERIFICATION Layer
Verify data, sources, and implications through replicable queries.