The Fact and Its Mechanism
On March 11, 2026, the UNHCR announced that 3.2 million people in Iran have been displaced due to conflict. The majority have left Tehran and other major cities for northern rural areas. This massive movement has created sudden pressure on transportation infrastructure, resource distribution networks, and local healthcare services. Road and rail traffic has seen a 40% increase in regions such as Qazvin and Semnan, where the new arrivals have concentrated.
The logistics of the transfer rely on collective transport means (buses and trains) and private vehicles. Iranian authorities have activated 12 temporary distribution centers, but their capacity is limited to 500 units per site. This has generated queues of 8-10 hours for access to food, water, and medical assistance. The UNHCR estimates that 60% of the displaced people have lost 70% of their income, exacerbating national economic fragility.
Nodal Engineering
The Iranian road network, designed for an average traffic flow of 1,200 vehicles per hour, has exceeded 1,800 vehicles per hour in critical areas. For example, the Tehran-Qom highway has seen a 35% increase in CO₂ emissions due to heavy traffic. Railway stations in Mashhad and Ahvaz have recorded overcapacity of 200%, with trains departing every 15 minutes instead of every 30. This required the activation of alternative routes, increasing operational costs by 25%.
The distribution centers use modular containers (10×20 m) as basic units, but the lack of refrigeration facilities has compromised food preservation. Water storage capacity is limited to 500 m³ per site, insufficient for covering the needs of 1,500 families. The UNHCR requested $120 million for infrastructure expansion, but only 30% has been allocated so far.
Who Pays and Who Benefits
Local authorities, such as the government of the province of Qazvin, support 60% of emergency management costs. The UNHCR has entered into agreements with private companies for food supply (company
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