Reconstruction of Power and Geoeconomic Vectors in the Global Order 2026

The geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape of 2026 is a product of an epistemological break with the principles of global governance established in the aftermath of World War II. The strategic policy of the United States, under the guidance of the second administration of Donald Trump, replaced the concept of multilateral leadership with a model of radical sovereignty defined by its ideologues as “Civil Realism” or “Hard Sovereignty.” This new power architecture is not merely a simple retreat into isolationism but configures a projection of muscular and transactional force that uses trade, technology, and control over energy resources as deterrents and tools for renegotiating global power dynamics.

> SYSTEM_LOG

The centerpiece of this transformation is the belief that unbridled globalization has acted as a vector of weakening of America’s industrial base and cultural stability. Consequently, the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) and subsequent State Department documents for the period 2026-2030 outline a vision where national security is inextricably linked to reindustrialization, absolute control over borders, and the restoration of American military preeminence in selected geographies, particularly the Western Hemisphere.

Strategic Paradigm of National Sovereignty and Commercial Diplomacy

The strategic doctrine of 2026 is based on an explicit rejection of what is defined as “globalism” and the negation of “destructive bets” made on free trade, which are said to have hollowed out America’s middle class and industrial capacity. The new paradigm seeks to connect national ends with available means in a “clear and ruthless” manner, identifying the survival of the sovereign republic as the only legitimate objective of foreign policy.

This approach translates into a “commercial diplomacy” where the United States leverages its status as the most innovative market and dominant financial system to exert pressure on any nation seeking access to American capital or consumers.

A distinctive element of this phase is the centralization of decision-making in the hands of the White House, with traditional bureaucracies marginalized. The 2025 NSS, accredited to Michael Anton’s vision, reflects an ideological document that breaks with inter-agency consensus norms.

Pillars of National Strategy 2026	Main Objectives
National Sovereignty	Total control of borders and remigration
Economic Dominance	Reindustrialization and end to abuses in the trade system
Trump Corollary	Restoration of absolute preeminence in the Western Hemisphere
Promoting Peace Through Strength	Deterrence towards China and modernization of nuclear weapons
Re-instilling Merit	Elimination of DEI practices and focus on competence

Macroeconomic Results of the Trump Tariff Policy (IEEPA)

The intensive use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as an economic security tool has transformed tariffs from a temporary measure to a daily pillar. Justifications for imposing tariffs include correcting trade imbalances and countering unconventional threats, such as the export of fentanyl precursors from China or lack of cooperation in managing migrant flows by Canada and Mexico.

Macroeconomic impact of duties (2026-2035)	Baseline Estimate	No IEEPA Scenario
Fiscal revenue forecast	$2.7 trillion	$0.8 trillion (estimated)
Real GDP reduction	-0.4%	-0.1%
Increase in unemployment (end 2026)	+0.65 percentage points	+0.5 percentage points
Net effect on revenues (dynamic)	$2.2 trillion	n.d.

The economic impact of this tariff regime has been profound and asymmetric. U.S. manufacturing production has recorded a long-term growth of 3.2%, but this has had an “spillover” effect on other sectors. Agriculture and construction have experienced significant contractions (respectively -1.1% and -4.0%) due to increased input costs and loss of access to foreign markets through retaliation.

Domestically, tariffs have acted as a regressive tax on consumers. For the average American family, the rise in prices has translated into a real income loss estimated between $1,800 and $2,800 annually. Products such as footwear, clothing, and motor vehicles have seen price increases in double digits, with persistent effects even after import substitution processes.

The Trump administration maintains that these costs are the price necessary for “liberation” from strategic dependence on rivals. By promoting a trend defined as “US+1,” where nations around the world diversify their investments away from China to maintain access to the U.S. market.

Strategic Reconstruction of the Trump Corollary to Monroe Doctrine

The most significant innovation in terms of territorial deterrence is the formulation of the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, sometimes referred to as the “Donroe Doctrine.” This principle establishes that the United States will not tolerate any military or economic presence of extra-emispheric powers on the American continent. The practical application of this doctrine has led to a series of unprecedented actions at the beginning of 2026, including the “Absolute Resolve” military operation in Venezuela, culminating with the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. This operation was justified as a necessary move to eliminate an outpost of the “Axis of Aggressors” (China, Russia, and Iran) within America’s backyard.

Analysis of the Beef Contract between USA and Argentina: Strategic and Economic Impacts

The strategic alliance with Javier Milei’s Argentina represents a vivid example of the application of the extended Monroe Doctrine. In February 2026, a treaty was signed that removed tariffs on over 1,600 Argentine products and quadrupled the import quota for lean beef to the United States, bringing it to 100,000 metric tons annually.

Beef trade data USA-Argentina (2026)	Value / Detail
New TRQ (Tariff-Rate Quota)	80,000 metric tons
Total post-agreement quota	100,000 metric tons
Estimated value of additional Argentine exports	$800 million
Impact on total U.S. supply	~0.6%
Tech restrictions	Only lean trimmings

This agreement has created a significant internal fracture, with lawmakers from beef-producing states like Nebraska and Texas accusing the administration of “stabbing in the back” domestic producers. Experts highlight that Argentine imports represent only 0.6-0.8% of total U.S. supply, a volume insufficient to erode retail prices but capable of eroding the margins of domestic ranchers. In exchange for the beef concession, Argentina has agreed to align its economic security measures with those of the United States, committing to combating unfair commercial practices by companies controlled by third countries (China).

Reconstruction of Military Posture and Strategic Deterrence

The adoption of the 2026 National Defense Strategy marks a transformation from “integrated deterrence” to a strategy of “peace through strength,” with a focus on lethality and territorial defense. The Pentagon has been instructed to reconstruct military culture around the “warrior ethos,” eliminating diversity and equity programs considered distractions from combat readiness.

The top priority strategy is the implementation of the “Golden Dome,” an integrated missile defense shield designed to protect the American continent from hypersonic and intercontinental ballistic missile threats. The strategy calls for a gradual disengagement from secondary theaters, such as Europe and the Middle East, to reposition forces in the Indo-Pacific and Western Hemisphere.

In Europe, the responsibility for conventional defense is formally transferred to allies, with the United States maintaining only a supporting role in logistics and nuclear deterrence. This deterrence is supported by the “America First Arms Transfer Strategy” of February 2026, which ties arms sales to the ability to build up the U.S. industrial base.

Arms sales are no longer considered diplomatic concessions but as a way to “supercharge” the American defense industry through over $300 billion in annual sales, prioritizing partners that invest seriously in their own self-defense.

Analysis of the Paradox of Semiconductors and Strategic Dependencies

In 2026, the semiconductor industry has reached a crisis point due to the boom in artificial intelligence (AI), despite a forecasted global revenue growth of $975 billion. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) continues to have a near-monopolistic share in the sector, with 90% of advanced chip production and 28% of wafer shipments at 3 nanometers.

Impact of AI Memories on Traditional Markets

While TSMC and Nvidia are reaping record profits from GPU demand for AI, traditional computing markets are in crisis. The giants of memory (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) have redirected production lines towards wide-bandgap memories (HBM) for AI accelerators, creating a devastating shortage of standard DDR4 and DDR5 memories.

Value	Price evolution and memory market (2025-2026)
$95	DDR5 32GB kit price (Mid-2025)
$550 – $600	Projected Q2 2026 DDR5 32GB kit price
478%	Price increase percentage (12 months)
70%	AI Data Center DRAM consumption worldwide (2026)
16-17% (below historical norms)	DRAM and NAND supply growth (2026 YoY)

This shortage has hit hard companies like Lenovo, the world’s largest PC manufacturer, which reported a 21% drop in profits in December 2025 despite an 18% increase in revenue. The Trump administration used this vulnerability to threaten tariffs up to 100% on South Korean chip producers unless they significantly expanded production on American soil, transforming the technological shortage into a lever of geo-economic coercion.

Analysis of the Energy Vector and Market Dynamics

The objective of U.S. energy policy in 2026 is to transform the sector into a dominant export industry capable of financing domestic growth. Washington pushes for total deregulation and increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, generating new dynamics among allies and adversaries.

Norway, the main supplier of gas to Europe, reached record investments in oil & gas in 2025, totaling 275 billion kroner (approximately $26.9 billion), driven by the development of new fields by actors like Equinor and Vaar Energi. However, forecasts for 2026 indicate a drop to 230 billion kroner, signaling potential tensions between long-term investment needs and global price volatility influenced by American policies.

Parallelly, Russia has intensified the use of energy as an asymmetric warfare tool. In February 2026, Moscow began providing oil to Cuba under the guise of “humanitarian aid” to counter the energy blockade imposed by the United States. Cuba was facing its worst energy crisis in decades after Washington cut off Venezuelan oil supplies following Maduro’s capture. In response, on January 29, 2026, Trump signed Executive Order 14380, declaring a national emergency regarding Cuba and authorizing tariffs on any nation that provides, directly or indirectly, oil to the island.

Marine shipments of Russian crude to China	1.86 million bpd (+46% YoY)
Status of supply to China	Russia surpasses Saudi Arabia as top supplier
Russian tourists stranded in Cuba due to lack of air fuel	~5,000
Tariffs removed by the Trump administration on India	25% (in exchange for stopping Russian crude)

Response to Trump’s Protectionist Strategy: Industrial Growth and Emission Trends in China

In response to the protectionist and coercive policies of the Trump administration, China has demonstrated a notable capacity for adaptation concentrated on advanced technological sectors. Segments of solar, electric vehicles (EVs), and batteries generated a record value of 15.4 trillion yuan in 2025, contributing 11.4% to China’s GDP.

Analysis of the Energy Vector and LCOE

On the environmental front, data from the first half of 2025 indicate a 1% reduction in Chinese CO2 emissions compared to the previous year. This trend, although still fragile due to the expansion of coal-to-chemical projects, suggests that China may have reached its peak emissions five years ahead of the 2030 target.

The Trump administration has reacted to this industrial success in China with punitive tariffs. Tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles rose to 100% in 2025, while tariffs on batteries and solar components reached 25-50%. This policy risks slowing the global transition towards clean energy, as American companies in the fashion and manufacturing sectors complain of unsustainable costs for sustainable materials now hit by reciprocal tariffs. The United States has also withdrawn from 66 international organizations, including IPCC and the Paris Accords, citing the need to protect national sovereignty.

Sustainability and Chinese energy sector (2025)	Value / Target
Value of clean energy sector	15.4 trillion yuan ($2.1 trillion)
Renewable share in electricity generation	~40%
Solar capacity installed (first 9 months 2025)	240 GW
H1 2025 electricity sector emission reduction	3%
Annual growth rate of clean-tech sectors	18%

Erosion of the Distinction between State and Private Infrastructure in the Expansion of American Power

The 2026 analysis highlights a structural paradox: while the Trump administration promotes an obsessive return to physical territory (walls, military bases, annexations), the projection of American power is undergoing deterritorialization. Power is no longer exclusively tied to control of land but to the ability to dominate information flows, financial transactions, and technological standards that operate beyond national jurisdictions.

The creation of the “Board of Peace” and the use of commercial messaging platforms for national security discussions indicate an increased integration between official state channels and private infrastructures. This phenomenon is also visible in the legal system: U.S. criminal jurisdiction has become “unmoored” from geographical boundaries, with courts extending their authority to extraterritorial acts committed in cyberspace. The limitation of national borders as a barrier to police power becomes increasingly weaker.

Simultaneously, the world witnesses a fragmentation into “technological fiefdoms” (digital feudalism). Africa and the Southern Global are new battlefields in this “cold digital war,” where the United States and China compete to incorporate entire nations into their technological spheres of influence, conditioning development aid on adoption of security standards and export controls from Washington.

Critical Analysis of Trump’s Geoeconomic Strategy: Dependencies and Limits to Resilience

Donald Trump’s strategic policy in 2026 represents a radical attempt to reconfigure American power in an era characterized by the relative decline of unipolar hegemony. Through the brutal use of geoeconomics, the restoration of aggressive hemispheric supremacy, and control over enabling technologies, Washington seeks to create a “new golden age” based on internal resilience and border protection.

However, criticalities are evident. Extreme dependence on TSMC, with the global semiconductor market representing 28% of the Taiwanese company’s market share, together with the structural crisis in memories that strangles the American technology industry, and China’s dominance in energy transition despite imposed tariffs, pose severe limits to a purely transactional strategy. These structural dependencies undermine America’s ability to ensure technological autonomy and energy independence.

In addition, internal factional struggles, highlighted by key figures like Michael Anton’s departure, raise doubts about the coherence and long-term reliability of an approach that trades historical allies for temporary commercial concessions. The fluidity of internal decision-making reduces strategic stability and increases the risk of policy inconsistencies.

The year 2026 ends with a fragmented global order where deterrence is no longer a stable equilibrium but an ongoing renegotiation under threat. The United States has abandoned the role of guarantor of global public goods to become a “norm destroyer” with the objective of extracting maximum value from the international system.

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