A 2 Million Barrel Per Day Course Correction
On February 24, 2026, the Russian oil transportation system experienced a significant operational shift: 2 million barrels per day of crude, previously destined for India, were rerouted to China via VLCC (Very Large Crude Carriers) holding 2 million barrels each. This shift, recorded by Vortexa and Bloomberg, involved the Kaleykino hub, a key mixing point for Urals crude. Satellite data indicates that VLCCs, departing from western Russian ports, transfer the cargo in open water in the Suez Canal before heading to China.
This decision is not arbitrary. VLCCs, with construction costs exceeding $100 million, reduce transportation costs by 15-20%. However, they require ports with a minimum depth of 15 meters, limiting unloading locations to a few Chinese locations such as Dalian and Shanghai. This logistical shift reveals a long-term strategy: China, importing 30% of Russian oil in 2025, is consolidating an alternative to the traditional India route.
Anatomy of the Russian Transportation System
Transneft, a state-owned Russian company, has a total capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day through the Druzhba network. The 25% capacity disruption at Kaleykino necessitated the use of maritime solutions. VLCCs, operated by companies like CNOOC, take 30-45 days to complete the full round trip from Primorsky to Shanghai. Each vessel spends 12-15 days solely transiting the Suez Canal.
The logistics have concrete implications: loading time in Russia is reduced from 48 to 24 hours thanks to the use of high-pressure pumps. However, the risk of collision increases by 30% in the waters of the Suez Canal, where VLCCs account for 18% of the traffic. This shift has already generated a 12% increase in insurance costs for vessels, as reported by Lloyd’s Register.
Who Pays, Who Gains
CNOOC, with a fleet of 12 VLCCs dedicated to Russian crude, has recorded a 22% increase in revenue in Q4 2025. Its Russian counterpart, Rosneft, has seen a 15% decrease in logistics costs. Conversely, Indian refineries belonging to Reliance Industries and Essar have lost 450,000 barrels per day of Russian crude, with an estimated annual impact of $200 million. This has forced India to renegotiate contracts with Saudi Arabia, resulting in an 18% increase in purchase prices.
The ports of Mumbai and Kochi, previously suitable for transshipment, have seen a 35% decrease in loading operations. This has generated a surplus of unused capacity, with maintenance costs not previously budgeted exceeding $50 million per year. China, on the other hand, has accelerated the modernization of Dalian terminals, with an investment of $800 million to increase pier depth.
Indicator to Monitor
The number of VLCCs registered in Chinese waters (currently 12, with 5 under construction) and the volume of Russian crude unloaded in Dalian compared to Primorsky will be crucial indicators in the coming months. These data, detectable through maritime registers and Vortexa reports, will show whether China is truly replacing India as the main hub for Russian crude.
Photo by Joakim Honkasalo on Unsplash
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